#加密市场反弹
March 12 Morning Market Data Analysis (Brief Version, Detailed in Article)
According to the morning market data and latest developments, the cryptocurrency market continues to experience a fluctuating bottom-seeking trend. Below are the key analyses:
1. Overall Market Performance
$BTC Bitcoin (BTC)
Morning price rebounded from a high of $79,844 to a low of $76,560, currently reported at $82,240 (up 2.7% from the previous day), but the hourly level still shows a downward structure. The total liquidation amount across the network in the last 24 hours reached $870 million, mainly due to forced liquidation of long leveraged positions.
Key Signal: The weekly level has broken below the $84,500 support level, forming a 'descending triangle' pattern, with a technical target pointing to the $76,000-$78,000 range.
$ETH Ethereum (ETH)
Morning price fell from a high of $1,894 to a low of $1,752, currently reported at $1,839 (down 2.7% from the previous day). The on-chain staking rate has dropped to 18%, and the DeFi protocol TVL has retreated by $45 billion from its peak.
Key Signal: The 4-hour level MACD indicator shows a 'no root water' pattern, indicating short-term pullback demand.
2. Core Driving Factors
Macro Economic and Policy Shocks
The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes suggest persistent inflation, with interest rate cut expectations cooling down. The US dollar index remains high at 106.8, and the capital absorption effect of traditional safe-haven assets is squeezing the cryptocurrency market. The Trump administration has expanded energy sanctions on Iran, intensifying the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and increasing market risk aversion.
Market Sentiment and Technical Breakdown
The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 12 (extreme fear), with Bitcoin spot ETFs experiencing a net outflow for 8 consecutive days, totaling $2.9 billion. The Bitcoin MVRV ratio has fallen to 1.2, nearing the historical bottom threshold (1.0), and the long-term holders' (LTH) chip ratio has rebounded to 65%, potentially indicating the approach of a phase bottom.
3. Risk Warnings
Extreme Volatility Risk: The auction results for the remaining assets of FTX (approximately 74,000 BTC) on March 15 may exacerbate market volatility. Technical Breakdown Risk: If BTC falls below the psychological barrier of $80,000, it may trigger algorithmic trading programs to follow suit and sell off.
Policy Uncertainty: The EU's 'Cryptocurrency Anti-Money Laundering Bill' may increase compliance costs, leading to institutional capital withdrawal.
(Note: The above analysis is based on morning data from March 12, 2025. The market changes rapidly, and decisions should be made in conjunction with real-time dynamics.)
