The Compass in the Bear

Due to selling pressure primarily from investors who recently purchased tokens at relatively high prices, it becomes insightful to judge the depth that the current bearish phase may reach. To assess this, we will use various statistical ranges based on the cost basis of short-term holders as readings of psychological fair value extremes.

The chart below shows the statistical high and low ranges of price deviations derived from these cost basis models.

Currently, the lower limit of this model (severe underfunding of short-term holders) is between $713,000 and $919,000. Notably, this range aligns with the previously discussed liquidity gap between $70,000 and $88,000, indicating that there is a high likelihood of forming a temporary bottom in this area at least in the short term.