The "Intelligent Investor" Textbook for the Next 6-12 Months—Across All Asset Classes

Right now, everyone is fixated on one question: Are we at the start of a bear market, or is the bull run still intact?

But there’s a more fundamental question to answer: Will global liquidity increase or decrease in the coming 6-12 months?

If you believe liquidity will increase—whether through rate cuts, tax cuts, an end to quantitative tightening (QT), or a shift to quantitative easing (QE)—then the economy will be flushed with excess cash. That capital will inevitably flow into stocks, crypto, real estate, and other assets, driving prices higher. Of course, as always, this will lead to overextension, culminating in a crash a year later and a prolonged bear market.

On the other hand, if you believe liquidity will tighten further and economic conditions will worsen, the best move is to sit in cash and wait for the right entry point in the asset class you understand best.

Liquidity dictates the cycle—position accordingly.