#交易分析101 Some Tips

1. Time and Volatility Adaptation

Cancel fixed trading periods, shift to event-driven trading: focus on the opening of the US stock market (crypto and US stocks correlation), major protocol upgrades (such as Ethereum forks), or high volatility windows before and after exchanges list new coins. Use 15-minute/1-hour candlesticks to capture impulse trends, and set stop-loss levels to 5%-8% (to avoid false spikes).

2. On-chain Data Integration

Technical analysis combined with on-chain fundamentals: monitor whale address activities (such as transfers from Binance hot wallets), net inflows to exchanges (Glassnode data), changes in stablecoin market capitalization (indications of USDT issuance). The floor price of NFT blue-chip projects and liquidation lines of lending platforms can serve as sentiment indicators.

3. Multi-dimensional Risk Control System

Position Isolation: Main position allocated to BTC/ETH, <20% of funds chasing altcoins

Contract Protection: Prefer perpetual contracts in coin denomination (to avoid stablecoin liquidation), leverage ≤5x

Black Swan Preparedness: Reserve 10% USDT to cope with extreme market conditions (such as exchange failures, regulatory crackdowns)

4. Narrative Cycle Prediction

Grasp the Meme cycle rhythm:

Early bull market: Ambush low market cap public chains (such as Solana ecosystem)

FOMO stage: Chase SocialFi/GameFi hotspots

Bear market rebound: Allocate to BTC ecosystem (Ordinals, Layer 2)

Beware of the 'death spiral': Project teams need to retreat one month before unlocking tokens.

5. Counterintuitive Game Theory

Utilize panic index tools (such as Alternative.me): when the greed index >75, take partial profits, <25 for dollar-cost averaging. Avoid over-reliance on KOL signals and focus on changes in institutional holdings of the top 50 coins on CoinGecko.

The essence of the crypto space is an information arbitrage battlefield, requiring the establishment of a Telegram news monitoring + on-chain bot alert system to maintain sensitivity to regulatory policies (such as SEC lawsuits) and technical vulnerabilities (cross-bridge risks).