1. Global picture



  • Current price: 80,270.05 USDT


  • Change for the month: +2.49%


  • Maximum in 24h: 84,123.46


  • Minimum in 24h: 76,606.00


  • Volume in 24h: 4.26 billion USDT


  • Volume for the month: significantly increased, but there is a correction


2. Trend analysis


🔹 Long-term bullish trend (1M)



  • BTC maintains a global upward trend from the perspective of the monthly chart.


  • The price is above all key EMAs (EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200).


  • Moving averages indicate a bullish trend, but the price has corrected from the maximum of 109,588 USDT.


🔸 Key support and resistance levels




  • Resistance:



    • 85,000 USDT (local level before a new maximum).


    • 90,000-95,000 USDT (psychological zone).


    • 100,000+ USDT (new historical maximum).



  • Support:



    • 78,000-80,000 USDT (key holding zone).


    • 72,000 USDT (strong level confirmed by previous pullbacks).


    • 65,000 USDT (if there is a deep correction).



3. Indicators and confirmations


📊 Bollinger Bands



  • BTC is trading close to the upper BB boundary, indicating possible overbought.


  • Average line (45,458.79 USDT) – long-term support.


📈 RSI (Relative Strength Index)



  • RSI (13): 60.09 – in the growth zone, but without extreme overbought.


  • RSI (50): 50.28 – neutral signal.


  • RSI (26): 60.71 – no overheating yet, but need to watch for consolidation.


📊 MACD (Trend Strength)



  • DIF: 13,166.40, DEA: 11,114.69, MACD: 2,051.71


  • Indicates a bullish trend, but the histogram shows a decrease in momentum strength.


📊 OBV (On-Balance Volume Indicator)



  • OBV: 14,470,923.96 – strong trend with liquidity accumulation.


  • BTC has not lost strength yet, but the volume profile shows a fixation of some positions.



4. Possible trading scenarios


✅ Bullish (long) scenario


📌 Entry:



  • If BTC holds 80,000 USDT and closes the week above this level.


  • Or after breaking 85,000 USDT with confirmation on volumes.


🎯 Take-profit:



  • 90,000 USDT (psychological zone).


  • 95,000-100,000 USDT (historical movement).


🔻 Stop-loss:



  • 78,000 USDT (if a decline starts).


  • 72,000 USDT (deep protection).


📊 Probability of scenario: 65% (BTC maintains bullish trend).



❌ Bearish (short) scenario


📌 Entry:



  • If BTC cannot hold above 80,000 USDT.


  • Or upon breaking 78,000 USDT downward with increased selling volumes.


🎯 Take-profit:



  • 75,000 USDT (first support level).


  • 72,000 USDT (deep correction).


🔻 Stop-loss:



  • 82,000 USDT (exit from short position).


  • 85,000 USDT (if it breaks upward).


📊 Probability of scenario: 35% (BTC remains bullish, but a correction is possible).



5. Summary and strategy


💡 BTC remains in a bullish trend, but a pullback to 78,000-80,000 USDT is possible before continued growth.


👉 Optimal strategy:



  • Long-term purchases on retest of 80,000 USDT.


  • Partially sell at 85,000-90,000 USDT.


  • Open short positions cautiously only upon breaking 78,000 USDT downward.


📌 BTC in the decision-making zone! Watch the levels and confirmations! 🚀

$BTC