Below is a rough calculation of the time window in which Bitcoin realistically (though not guaranteed) could reach 1 million dollars. Relying on:
1. Historical 'x's (growth from 'bottom to peak' of each cycle).
2. The trend of decreasing these 'x's as the market matures.
3. Halving intervals (approximately every 4 years).
This is not financial advice or a 'prophecy', but modeling based on past data and the logic of 'diminishing returns'.
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1. A brief reminder of previous 'x's
Cycle 1 (2011–2013)
Growth in hundreds and thousands of times (the market was tiny).
Cycle 2 (2015–2017)
~100× (from a minimum of around 200 dollars to a peak of ~20 thousand).
Cycle 3 (2019–2021)
~20× (from a bottom of ~3–4 thousand to a peak of ~64 thousand).
Note that the 'x's decrease each cycle, and the time from the minimum to the new peak usually falls within ~2–3 years after the halving.
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2. Approximate model of future 'x's
To understand when we might reach the mark of 1 million, let's consider that:
After the 3rd halving (2020), the maximum growth was not 100×, but closer to 20×.
After the 4th halving (2024), the peak will likely be even smaller in 'multiples' – say, 5–7× from the local bottom.
Further, each cycle may yield increasingly modest 'x's (4×, 3×, 2×, etc.), but with a higher absolute price.
Below we will model the 'average' scenario:
1. Halving #4 (target: April 2024)
Let's assume the cycle bottom was around 15–16 thousand (end of 2022 – beginning of 2023).
Let's assume the peak after the halving (2025) is 5–7× from ~16 thousand → we get a range of 80–110 thousand.
Average estimate: 100k by 2025 (plus-minus).
2. Halving #5 (target: 2028)
After the peak, the price typically corrects by ~50%. Let's assume the 'bottom' of the new cycle is around 50k.
Then the growth cycle from 2028–2030 gives a more modest 4× → we reach 200k (peak around 2029–2030).
3. Halving #6 (target: 2032)
Again, a correction to ~100k.
Growth of 3× → 300k (peak around 2033–2034).
4. Halving #7 (target: 2036)
Correction to 150k.
A growth of 3× (or slightly more if demand intensifies and capital flows from gold/fiat) → a range of 450–500k by ~2037–2038.
5. Halving #8 (target: 2040)**
Bottom ~200k.
Growth of 3× → ~600k (or 4× → 800k). If there is a 'spike' in demand (for example, if institutions/government funds are even more 'pumped', and fiat loses trust) – we could see 1 million closer to the early 2040s.
This is a very 'conservative' ladder. In practice, things could go faster if suddenly:
Fiat systems will face hyperinflation or loss of trust (at which point capital will sharply flow into BTC).
Mass adoption (largest banks, funds, pension savings, sovereign funds) will start earlier.
Blockchain technologies (Lightning, sidechains) will sharply increase the use and demand for BTC.
The conclusion from these estimates
According to this smooth model, 1 million for BTC could 'shine' in the second half of the 2030s. But if at least 1–2 'bull cycles' turn out to be stronger than forecasts – we could well see $1M as early as 2030–2032.
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3. Alternative 'fast' model
If we assume that:
The 4th halving (2024–2025) will push the price to ~120–150k.
The 5th halving (2028–2029) will lead to growth of ~400–500k (meaning the 'x's won't be so small, institutions will heavily accumulate).
Then in the 6th cycle (2032–2033), in the case of another 'super rally', we could 'break' 1 million.
That is, in an aggressive scenario – around 2032–2033.
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4. Summarizing
The long-term hypothesis 'BTC = $1M' does not seem fantastic if the world continues to 'go digital' and continues to lose trust in unlimited issuance of fiat currencies.
'When?' – the range in the most 'down-to-earth' models lies somewhere between 2030 and the middle of the 2030s. But everything can shift earlier or later, depending on external factors (regulation, global crises, rates of adoption, behavior of large funds, etc.).
The key 'fundamentals' (deficit, halvings, institutional investors, Bitcoin's positioning as 'digital gold') create the basis for such growth scenarios.
The main idea:
> $1,000,000 for BTC — this is not a 'guarantee', but it is also not a 'fairy tale'. This is a real trajectory if Bitcoin maintains its status as the most reliable and scarce cryptocurrency, and global capital continues to flow into it from gold and fiat assets.
