#ETH巨鲸清算

Market Data Analysis for March 11 Morning (Simplified Version)

I. Overall Market Performance

​Bitcoin (BTC)

The price reached a morning low of $77,459 (down 2.76% from the previous day), breaking below the key support level of $80,000. The current 4-hour candlestick shows a bottom divergence pattern, but the resistance level at $83,254 is clearly suppressing upward movement, indicating a "short squeeze" operation by the market makers.

​Ethereum (ETH)

Dropped below the $1,900 threshold to $1,862 (24-hour decline of 7.83%), nearing the secondary support level of $1,800. The Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols has retraced by $45 billion since the peak of Trump's election, reflecting weak market confidence.

II. Core Driving Factors

​Extreme Volatility and Margin Liquidation

The entire network saw over $164 million in liquidations within 24 hours, with Ethereum experiencing a single-hour liquidation of $56.97 million. Whales were forced to sell 25,800 ETH (loss of $31.75 million) due to the looming liquidation of their leveraged positions.

Shorts dominate the market, with Bitcoin showing five consecutive daily losses, and the lower Bollinger Band continues to widen, indicating insufficient buying power.

​Policy and Macroeconomic Pressure

Japan has reduced the Bitcoin capital gains tax from 55% to 20%, but the market is more concerned about the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy and the trade friction risks arising from Trump's tariff plans. The tech sector in the U.S. stock market evaporated over $3 trillion in a single day, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies as risk assets.

III. Risk Warning

​Extreme Volatility Risk: Quantitative programs may trigger chain stop-losses, and the CPI data on March 12 may heighten expectations for interest rate hikes.

Technical Breakdown Risk: If BTC falls below $76,836, it may initiate a medium-term bear market, while ETH losing the $1,800 level will open up downward space.

Policy Uncertainty: The details of the strategic Bitcoin reserve execution remain unclear, and the risk of a Department of Justice sale still exists.

IV. Operational Strategy Suggestions

​Short-term Trading:

Position long BTC in the range of $77,000-$76,836 (stop loss at $75,000), and short it when it rebounds above $81,000 (targeting $77,000).

For ETH, focus on the $1,800-$1,850 range for oscillation, engaging in high sell and low buy.

​Long-term Allocation: If BTC pulls back to the $75,000-$76,836 range, build positions in batches (accounting for 40% of total position); increase positions in ETH below $1,800 (accounting for 20%).

(Note: The above analysis is based on the morning data of March 11, 2025; the market is volatile, and decisions should consider individual risk tolerance.)