All eyes in the current market are focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut dynamics. There are only 8 days left until the next interest rate meeting, but according to CME data, the market believes there is a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in March, which means the hope for a rate cut in March is nearly extinguished. However, for a rate cut in May, the market gives a probability of 52.1%, while the probability for a rate cut in June is as high as 86.2%, indicating that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to implement a rate cut in June.
The current market conditions resemble the dull period of 2024. Last year we were looking forward to the results of the U.S. election, while this year everyone is anticipating the arrival of rate cuts.
The current stalemate in the market is quite troublesome; investors looking to buy the dip are worried that prices will continue to fall, while those taking a wait-and-see attitude are afraid of missing out on opportunities. For those investors who no longer have excess funds to enter the market, perhaps choosing to 'lie flat' is a good option, not having to watch the market constantly; maybe in a few months, the market will rebound. For those investors with remaining capital reserves, it may be worthwhile to discuss how to accurately buy the dip together.