According to the morning market data and latest updates on March 11, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is exhibiting extreme volatility; here are the key analyses:
I. Overall market performance
Bitcoin (BTC)
The price hit a morning low of $77,459 (down 2.76% from the previous day), breaking the key support level of $80,000. Currently, the 4-hour K-line shows a bottom divergence pattern, but the pressure level at $83,254 is significant, and the market exhibits characteristics of 'killing longs and pulling back' from the operators.
Ethereum (ETH)
Dropped below the $1,900 mark to $1,862 (24-hour decline of 7.83%), approaching the $1,800 second support level. The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols has retreated by $45 billion from the peak when Trump was elected, showing weak market confidence.
II. Core driving factors
Extreme volatility and leverage liquidation
Over $164 million in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, with Ethereum liquidations hitting $56.97 million in just one hour. Whales were forced to sell 25,800 ETH (loss of $31.75 million) due to leverage positions nearing liquidation.
Bears dominate the market, Bitcoin's daily chart shows five consecutive bearish candles, and the lower Bollinger Band continues to widen with insufficient buying power.
Policy and macroeconomic pressures
Japan will reduce Bitcoin capital gains tax from 55% to 20%, but the market is more concerned about the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy and trade friction risks caused by Trump's tariff plans.
The U.S. tech sector evaporated over $3 trillion in a single day, with cryptocurrency, as a risk asset, facing similar pressure.
III. Key technical signals
IV. Risk warnings
Extreme volatility risk: Quantitative programs may trigger a chain of stop-losses, and the CPI data on March 12 may raise expectations for interest rate hikes.
Technical breakdown risk: If BTC falls below $76,836, it may trigger a mid-term bear market, and if ETH loses $1,800, it will open up downward space.
Policy uncertainty: The details of the strategic Bitcoin reserve execution remain unclear, and the risk of a Department of Justice sell-off still exists.
V. Operational strategy recommendations
Short-term trading:
BTC is positioning long orders in the $77,000-$76,836 range (stop loss at $75,000), shorting above $81,000 (target $77,000).
ETH focuses on oscillation within the $1,800-$1,850 range, buying high and selling low.
Long-term allocation:
If BTC pulls back to the $75,000-$76,836 range, build positions in batches (40% of total position); increase ETH holdings below $1,800 (20%).
(Note: The above analysis is based on morning data from March 11, 2025. The market changes rapidly; decisions should consider personal risk tolerance.)
