According to the latest market data and policy dynamics on March 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market shows severe volatility. Key factors to watch for tonight's trends include:
I. Overall Market Performance
1. Bitcoin (BTC)
The price hit a daily low of $79,900, then rebounded to around $80,730, with a decline of over 6% in 24 hours. The technical analysis shows a potential 'W' double bottom formation on the 4-hour candlestick chart, but the resistance level at $83,254 is significant. If it cannot break through, it may further test the support at $76,836.
2. Ethereum (ETH)
Dropped below the $2,000 threshold to $1,993, with a decline of over 8% in 24 hours. If it continues to hold below the $1,872 support, it may trigger a chain of sell-offs down to $1,730.
II. Core Driving Factors
1. Policy Favorability Has Run Its Course
Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve (200,000 coins), but the market believes this plan has been fully priced in, and the Department of Justice may continue selling reserved Bitcoins, forming a bearish hedge.
2. Macroeconomic Pressure
- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated the maintenance of high interest rates, with non-farm payroll data imminent, and the dollar index rising to 106.8, exacerbating capital outflows.
- Trump's tariff policy (effective March 12) has raised concerns about global trade friction, leading investors to turn to safe-haven assets.
3. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
Over 210,000 liquidations across the network in 24 hours (with 65% being short positions), the largest single liquidation reaching $32.08 million. Spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $3.12 billion over the past 8 days, but Wall Street institutions have increased their Bitcoin holdings through indirect means.
III. Key Technical Signals
Asset Support Level (USD) Resistance Level (USD) Operational Recommendations
$BTC BTC 76,836 79,320 83,254 86,380 Buy on support with light positions, short on rebounds at high points.
$ETH ETH 1,872 1,968 2,080 2,171 Short on breakout, reverse to long on stabilization
$SOL SOL 120.00 135.00 Cautious observation, waiting for trend clarity
XRP 2.00 2.30 Monitor Ripple lawsuit progress
IV. Risk Warning
1. Policy Uncertainty: The specific execution details of the strategic Bitcoin reserve are unclear, and the risk of liquidation by the Department of Justice remains.
2. Extreme Volatility Risk: Quantitative trading programs may trigger a chain of stop losses, and the CPI data on March 12 may raise interest rate hike expectations.
3. Technical Break Risk: If BTC falls below $78,000, it may initiate long-term consolidation. If ETH falls below $2,000, it will open up downward space.
V. Operational Strategy Recommendations
- Short-term Trading:
- BTC positions near $81,000, stop loss at $79,500; short if rebounds above $83,500, targeting $80,000.
- ETH focuses on range fluctuations between $1,980-$2,020, buying low and selling high.
- Long-term Allocation:
- If BTC retraces to the $75,000-$78,000 range, build positions in batches (40% of total positions); increase ETH holdings below $1,800 (20%).
- Allocate 10% of funds to RWA (such as ONDO) and other counter-cyclical assets to hedge risks.
(Note: The above analysis is based on real-time data as of March 10, 2025. The market is volatile, and decisions should consider individual risk tolerance.)