Without long-term worries, there will be short-term troubles. Trump has been in office for nearly 2 months, and most policies regarding cryptocurrency have been 'loud thunder but little rain,' mostly just hot air. Considering the recent fluctuating tariff policies and the pullback trend in the US stock market, the probability of Bitcoin continuing to pull back is quite high. Below are three scenarios with relatively high probabilities:

1. Bitcoin retraces to the middle line of the 8-hour Bollinger Bands without effectively breaking through, and even if the rebound is weaker, it falls below the lower line of the 8-hour Bollinger Bands (which is also a key integer support level around 80,000), accelerating down to around 65,000 to complete a big shark pattern, probability 50%

2. Bitcoin rebounds strongly, again bouncing back to around 92,000, but fails to effectively break through and stabilize above the upper line of the 8-hour Bollinger Bands, or after multiple oscillations between 80,000 and 92,000, falls below the key position of 80,000, accelerating down to around 65,000 to complete a big shark pattern, probability 30%

3. Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance level around 92,000 and stabilizes, transitioning back to an upward trend, with a bat pattern around 106,000-110,000, after three peaks (which is also a head and shoulders top), it crashes, also the most volatile and bloody version, probability 20% #加密市场回调 88345623237