According to the latest market data on March 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is exhibiting severe fluctuations, with significant divergence in the trends of major coins. Detailed analysis is as follows:
I. Overall market performance
Bitcoin (BTC)
Prices fell over 6% during the day, hitting a low of $80,037, breaking the key support level of $82,000. The technicals show that the daily MACD histogram continues to contract, and the RSI is approaching the oversold territory but has not entered the extreme range, indicating that the short-term bearish trend remains unchanged. On-chain data shows increased exchange reserves, but there are signs of stabilization in the outflow of stablecoin funds.
Ethereum (ETH)
Falling 1.5% to around $2,030, the 4-hour K-line is under pressure from EMA7/30 moving averages. If it breaks below the $1,970 support, it may further drop to $1,890. The progress of the staking ETF remains uncertain, combined with CME short positions reaching new highs, creating short-term pressure.
II. Diversification of altcoins intensifies
Counter-trend rise: Polygon (MATIC) is experiencing a surge due to the 2.0 upgrade, with trading volume approaching $100 billion, and the token POL is gaining market attention.
Underperforming assets: XRP fell 6.4% to below $2.3, with rumors of fines from Ripple and the SEC raising liquidity concerns; SOL dropped below $130, returning to the October 2024 low.
Structural opportunities: Some L2 sector tokens (like SHB) attract risk-averse funds due to their linkage to gold assets, but caution is needed regarding high-level volatility risks.
III. Core driving factors
Policy expectation gap
The White House cryptocurrency summit only proposed a vague legislative framework for stablecoins, and Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserve plan failed to commit to government purchases, causing prices to drop from $90,000 to $81,000. The market is concerned about the lack of substantial support for policies, making short-term benefits difficult to sustain.
Macroeconomic pressures
The Federal Reserve's March meeting is approaching, with non-farm payroll data to be released soon, the dollar index has risen to a high of 106.8, and funds continue to flow out of risk assets. Weather factors in Xinjiang, China, may affect mining power and exacerbate market fluctuations.
Market sentiment and capital flow
Over $200 million in liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours (65% short positions), Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $3.12 billion for 8 consecutive days, and the fear index has risen to 'extreme fear' (12/100). However, Wall Street institutions (like Goldman Sachs) have increased their Bitcoin holdings through indirect means, indicating that the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged.
IV. Operational suggestions
Short-term trading:
A rebound of Bitcoin to $83,254 (resistance level) can be shorted with light positions, stop loss set at $86,380; if it breaks below the $80,000 support, then pursue shorts.
Ethereum is focusing on short positions around $2,150-$2,110, targeting $2,000.
Long-term allocation:
Build positions in BTC in the $80,000-$90,000 range, add to ETH below $2,000, with a suggested allocation of BTC/ETH at 50% + AI sector (FET, ARKM) at 30%.
Risk hedging: retain 20% cash to cope with extreme volatility, allocate to RWA (such as ONDO) and other counter-cyclical assets.
V. Risk warnings
In the short term, attention should be paid to the rising interest rate expectations triggered by the U.S. CPI data exceeding expectations on March 12, as well as the chain reaction of sell-offs triggered by quantitative trading programs. In the medium term, pay attention to the progress of the stablecoin legislation in August and MicroStrategy's accumulation plan.
(Note: The above analysis is based on real-time data as of March 10, 2025. The market is rapidly changing, and decisions should consider individual risk tolerance.)
