"Black Swan" is about to raid the US stock market🌩🌩🌩

As the deadline for the temporary spending bill approaches, the U.S. federal government is about to face a shutdown crisis. On March 8, local time, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson announced a temporary government funding bill that will last until September 30, which will be voted on next Tuesday. U.S. President Trump called on Republicans to support the bill and said Democrats might try to "shut down the government."

At present, there is great uncertainty as to whether the bill can be passed by both the Senate and the House. Wall Street analysts warned that in the short term, the US government shutdown may increase the volatility of the US stock market, as concerns about trade conflicts have already stirred up the US stock market.

This week, Trump's erratic trade policy led to a fierce sell-off in the U.S. stock market, with all three major indexes plummeting. The S&P 500 fell 3.1% this week, the largest weekly drop since September 6 last year; the Nasdaq fell 3.5% this week and entered a correction zone.

In addition, Wall Street is also worried that Trump's tariff policy may further increase inflationary pressure in the United States. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, which will be released next Wednesday, is also a focus of market attention. If this inflation report confirms that inflation is accelerating again, it may trigger a new round of selling in the U.S. stock market.

A huge thunder may explode

To avoid debt default, the U.S. Congress passed a temporary spending bill at the end of last year to provide funding for the federal government until March 14 this year. As the deadline for the spending bill approaches, the U.S. federal government will face a shutdown crisis again.

On March 8 local time, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson officially announced a temporary government funding bill lasting until September 30, aimed at avoiding a possible government shutdown in the United States on March 14.

It is reported that the 99-page bill will be voted on next Tuesday (March 11), which will continue to fund the government at current levels.

Johnson is preparing to hold a vote on the funding bill next week despite a lack of Democratic support, seeking to unite a divided Republican majority, a move that foreshadows a fierce confrontation in Congress and risks a government shutdown.

US President Trump posted on social media that the House of Representatives and the Senate have drafted a very good appropriations bill and all Republicans should vote for it next week. Trump said that Democrats will do everything they can to "shut down the government" and they cannot let this happen.

At present, there is great uncertainty as to whether the bill can be passed by both the House and Senate and signed by the president before the end of next week.

Members of the Democratic leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives said on the same day that they planned to vote against the House Republican spending plan released earlier that day, saying the plan would "wantonly cut" U.S. spending items.

According to reports, Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic Whip Katherine Clark and Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar said in a joint statement that the Republican House of Representatives' partisan appropriations bill "willfully cuts health care, nutrition assistance and $23 billion in veterans benefits."

What does the US government shutdown mean for investors?

In recent years, as party disputes have intensified, the U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown crisis for many times due to reaching the debt ceiling, with more than 20 shutdowns. The longest one occurred during Trump's first presidency from 2018 to 2019, lasting 34 days. It is estimated that the shutdown caused the United States to lose about US$3 billion (about RMB 22 billion).

(Barron's) Analysts believe that market volatility may increase in the short term. However, based on the performance of the stock market during previous government shutdowns, investors do not need to panic too much.

Of course, circumstances may be different this time: The shutdown comes at a time when concerns about a trade conflict are already roiling stock markets.

This week, Trump's erratic trade policy triggered panic selling in the market. The S&P 500 index fell 3.1% this week, the biggest weekly drop since September 6 last year; the Nasdaq index, which has a larger weight in technology stocks, fell 3.5% this week and entered a correction zone.

Market unease is also growing. The CBOE Volatility Index, the most-anticipated gauge of expected futures prices, has risen sharply this week to its highest level since late last year.

“Volatility will continue for a while due to uncertainty about the economy and trade policy,” said Irene Tunkel, chief U.S. equity strategist at BCA Research.#加密市场观察 #美国犹他州比特币法案 #白宫首届加密货币峰会 #非农就业数据来袭 #特朗普签署行政命令 $BTC $ETH $BNB