On March 9, there will be a real-time on-chain simulation, please prepare a quick-acting heart-saving pill!
Today, the old-school will deeply analyze Dogecoin; brothers, listen up!
Founding History: From a joke to a leader, all thanks to Musk's mouth.
In 2013, two programmers created $DOGE in three hours, originally to mock the crypto bubble, but ended up being turned into a 'tip currency' by Reddit users, sponsoring the Winter Olympics, building water wells, and even erecting a statue of Musk, turning a joke into a faith.
But what really made Dogecoin soar was Musk's promotion in 2021. This guy's one tweet directly caused $DOGE to skyrocket 100 times in four months, reaching a market cap of $90 billion and entering the top three. Even more astonishing, during the SNL live broadcast, his statement 'This is a scam' instantly halved the price, perfectly illustrating the 'pump-and-dump' textbook.
Whale's new script: ETF + Payment, a gold-plated scythe story.
If Trump is elected at the end of 2024 and Musk supports him, $DOGE will surge again, but the whales will sell off 60%, and retail investors will queue on the rooftop. Now institutional investors are entering, and the story is escalating:
1. Grayscale Trust: In January 2025, they launched a DOGE trust with a management fee of 2.5%. Although the scale is only $2 million, it means Dogecoin is officially dressed in a suit entering Wall Street.
2. ETF Game: Bitwise and Grayscale are rushing to submit applications; Bloomberg says there is a 75% chance of approval. If this happens, the whales can use compliant scythes to harvest global retail investors.
3. Payment Ambition: Musk's X platform (formerly Twitter) is developing X Money payment, and the code is filled with $DOGE Easter eggs. If it can really be scanned to buy Tesla, Dogecoin will directly transform from a meme to dollars.
But veteran investors understand that these 'good news' essentially mean that the whales are upgrading their scythes to combine harvesters.
Chip black market: The top 115 addresses hold 65% of the coins.
Look at the astonishing on-chain data:
Robinhood alone accounts for 21% of the circulating supply, which is equivalent to holding Dogecoin's lifeline.
When the top 20 whale addresses move, the price shakes at least three times.
Musk's partners Jared Birchall and Vitalik Buterin are advisors at the foundation, making it clear who is in control.
This is why Dogecoin can rise 100% in a day but can also drop to zero overnight—too much concentration of chips, and the whales’ actions depend on mood.
Life and death gamble: $1 or zero?
Now Dogecoin is stuck at $0.2, oscillating. The old-school believes three variables determine life and death:
X Payment Implementation: If Musk really integrates Dogecoin into X Money, the price will at least double.
2. ETF Approval: The day the SEC gives a nod is the day Dogecoin surges to $1.
Trump's policy: This old man says he wants to relax regulations, and the whales might take this opportunity to pump again.
But the risks are also exploding:
Every year, 5 billion coins are issued, inflation can eat up the gains.
The top 20 addresses can dump at any time; if the support at $0.18 breaks, it will plunge directly to $0.015.
Moreover, the Dogecoin code is outdated, and its transfer speed is being beaten by SOL and TON.
Old-school advice: (personal opinion, brothers analyze in real-time based on the latest news)
Don't believe in 'permanent lock-up': Grayscale and Bitwise are pushing ETFs just to cash out at high prices.
Keep a close eye on Musk's Twitter: This guy's words are more accurate than candlesticks, but be careful of getting reverse harvested.
Buy the dip at $0.18 with your eyes closed: Dogecoin’s weekly chart has completed a fourth-wave correction, and the fifth wave up to $1 is just around the corner.
In the crypto space, all narratives are bubbles; only the cries of loss are eternal.
I am old-school, backed by a top team, serving only ambitious madmen.