1. Market status: Plummeting and sideways, has the bull market really 'cooled down'?
In March 2025, after experiencing significant volatility at the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's price hovers between $60,000 to $70,000, while altcoins generally correct by 20%-50%. This fluctuating market condition has led to diverging sentiments: some shout 'the bull market is dead,' while others firmly believe 'the pullback is an opportunity.'
From historical data, Bitcoin bull market cycles are usually accompanied by the 'halving effect' and macroeconomic cycles, while the sideways movement after the 2024 halving has lasted nearly a year. Although prices have not broken previous highs, on-chain data shows that the proportion of institutional holdings continues to rise, with long-term holders accounting for over 60%, indicating that 'whales' are still accumulating chips.
2. Long vs Short Showdown: Five Core Arguments of Bull and Bear Camps
1. Bullish camp: The pullback is a 'halftime break' in the bull market
Halving effect has not yet fully released: After the Bitcoin halving in 2024, the long-term impact of reduced supply usually lags by 6-18 months, and historical data shows that prices may experience an explosion in mid to late 2025.
Accelerating institutional entry: Traditional financial institutions continue to layout crypto ETFs, custody services, and even sovereign funds begin to allocate Bitcoin, with inflow far exceeding 2021.
Strong technical support: Bitcoin has repeatedly formed strong support around $60,000, and the weekly level has not broken the long-term upward trend line, highly similar to the mid-2021 correction pattern.
2. Bearish camp: Signs of bubble burst have appeared
Market leverage is too high: Recently, the amount of contract liquidations surged, with the proportion of high-leverage positions above 50 times breaking historical peaks, similar to the signs before the 2021 collapse.
Weak narratives and regulatory pressure: Lack of new hotspots (such as DeFi, NFTs, etc.) driving market sentiment, and many countries are strengthening crypto regulations, suppressing speculative demand.
Concerns about miner sell pressure: Some mining companies are forced to sell Bitcoin reserves due to rising operating costs, which may exacerbate market volatility in the short term.
3. Key indicators: Three signals determine the life and death of the bull market
1. Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomics
If the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle begins, liquidity easing will directly benefit risk assets, otherwise it may trigger 'liquidity contraction panic.'
2. Bitcoin ETF capital flow
The net inflow/outflow data of the US spot Bitcoin ETF is a 'barometer' of institutional confidence; continuous capital outflow could trigger a chain sell-off.
3. Can the altcoin ecosystem recover?
If Ethereum spot ETF is approved, Layer 2 projects explode, or new public chains rise, it will drive overall market enthusiasm.
4. Future predictions: Three possibilities for the bull market in 2025
1. Optimistic scenario (probability 40%):
Bitcoin breaks $100,000, altcoin season begins, Web3 applications are widely deployed, and the bull market continues until 2026.
2. Neutral scenario (probability 50%):
Bitcoin maintains a fluctuation between $60,000 and $80,000, with the market entering a 'slow bull' phase, and structural opportunities concentrated in AI + blockchain, RWA, and other tracks.
3. Pessimistic scenario (probability 10%):
Black swan events (such as a global recession or heavy regulatory actions) could trigger a crash, causing Bitcoin to fall below $30,000, entering a 2-3 year bear market.
5. Survival guide: How can retail investors navigate through bull and bear cycles?
1. Reject FOMO, adhere to 'anti-human nature operations'
In the panic sell-off, build positions in batches, and gradually take profits when the market is euphoric.
2. Long-term layout of 'anti-cyclical assets'
Focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and compliant sectors (such as stablecoins, compliant exchanges).
3. Beware of contract leverage and embrace ecological dividends
Participate in staking, liquidity mining, and other low-risk returns to avoid becoming the 'denominator in liquidation statistics.'
Conclusion: The bull market is not dead, but has evolved.
The cryptocurrency market in 2025 is no longer a casino for 'mindless gambling,' but a new battlefield for institutions and retail investors, technical narratives, and macro policy games. The true winners are always the rational investors who are 'greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.'
