The current geopolitical actions of the Trump administration (U.S.-Iran attack plan pending, U.S.-Mexico game escalation) and the monetary policy game (interest rate cut expectations stuck) are pushing the cryptocurrency market into a dual vortex of 'geopolitical risk hovering + liquidity expectation tearing.' Three core logics are reshaping the market ecology:
I. The volatility strangulation of U.S.-Iran 'quasi-war status'
Trump 'approves the attack plan but withholds orders,' creating 'Schrödinger's military operation' — U.S.-Iran conflict enters a 'critical state ready to explode':
Emotional roller coaster: A scenario reminiscent of 'negotiation - denial' replay, Bitcoin's daily volatility skyrocketed to 8.7%, and derivative funding rates fluctuate sharply (Bitfinex BTC perpetual funding rate daily amplitude of 0.3%), liquidation risk increases exponentially;
Hedge game: Institutions use Bitcoin ETF (BlackRock's daily inflow of $320 million) to build 'geopolitical hedge positions,' while simultaneously laying out reverse contracts in the futures market (CME Bitcoin futures net short positions increased by 18%), harvesting volatility;
Energy - Inflation Transmission: If the conflict escalates, oil prices hitting $90 will push CPI, reducing the Fed's interest rate cut probability from 68% to 55%, directly suppressing crypto valuations.
II. 'Capital Risk Aversion Migration' due to Geopolitical Diffusion
Trump's game with Pakistan and Mexico tears open the gap of 'emerging market capital flight':
Pakistan: The reconstruction of U.S.-Pakistan relations has led to a depreciation of the rupee, with local Bitcoin P2P trading volume increasing by 47% weekly;
Mexico: Economic and trade game pressures the peso, with Bitso's net Bitcoin purchase volume reaching a new high since March (weekly increase of 62%);
Global demonstration: The capital share of emerging markets has risen from 35% to 42% (Chainalysis), Bitcoin's 'non-sovereign attribute' has become a new safe haven anchor.
III. 'Institutional Counter-Cyclical Layout' under Policy Contradictions
Trump's 'criticizing interest rate cuts' and 'tariffs pushing inflation' contradiction unexpectedly creates buying opportunities:
Counter-cyclical buying: Institutions are taking advantage of geopolitical fluctuations to buy below $105,000 (Binance BTC reserves decreased by 83,000 this week), betting on interest rate cut expectations;
Cross-border capital vehicle: USDT cross-border transfer volume increased by 29% weekly, and cryptocurrencies have become a 'capital channel against sanctions';
Narrative extension: The controversy over U.S. military bunker busters ignites the 'military + crypto' narrative, with Solana military NFT trading volume increasing by 120% weekly.
The current cryptocurrency market is in a showdown between 'volatility baptism' and 'institutional stability.' Recommendation:
Avoid derivative liquidation (total network contract holdings at $12.7 billion reach a new high since March), prioritize spot allocation (60% BTC + 30% ETH + 10% anti-sanction Token);
Focus on U.S.-Iran military orders, July interest rate meeting node — 'war landing' or 'clear interest rate cuts' will be the starting point of the trend market.
