PhyrexNi
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Before the non-farm report, the non-farm data is always very complicated, and we cannot rule out that the pullback from the sky is a risk aversion sentiment. However, in reality, this non-farm data currently has little to do with the Federal Reserve's decision in March. Nonetheless, the market will still serve as a basis for measuring the Federal Reserve's dot plot in March, and that is correct.
Overall, if the aim is to increase the number of interest rate cuts, a rise in the unemployment rate is a good thing. Over the past six months, the unemployment rate has reached a maximum of 4.2%. The neutral unemployment rate perceived by the Federal Reserve is 4.3%, so the higher the unemployment rate, the greater the probability of increasing the number of interest rate cuts, and that is a fact.
However, a significant rise in the unemployment rate would lead the U.S. into recession expectations, and recession is even scarier than inflation. If we really enter a recession, it would be the final drop.
On the other hand, if the unemployment rate continues to decline, it indicates that the U.S. economy remains strong, which may not necessarily be a bad thing. After all, the key to reducing inflation is the inflation data, so essentially, a slight increase or stabilization of the unemployment rate is a good thing.
Then there is non-farm employment. The higher this data is, the better the U.S. economy is. The end of the month indicates that the economy is not very prosperous, and the layoffs in DOGE are actually a reduction in this data. Therefore, from the current perspective, the higher the non-farm data, the better it is for the market, as the economy is stable.
Finally, there is wages. There's not much to say here; the higher the wages, the better it is for the economy, and the lower, the worse it is for the economy. So overall, the current market expectation is for good data, and as long as it meets expectations, it should be fine.
This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
Overall, if the aim is to increase the number of interest rate cuts, a rise in the unemployment rate is a good thing. Over the past six months, the unemployment rate has reached a maximum of 4.2%. The neutral unemployment rate perceived by the Federal Reserve is 4.3%, so the higher the unemployment rate, the greater the probability of increasing the number of interest rate cuts, and that is a fact.
However, a significant rise in the unemployment rate would lead the U.S. into recession expectations, and recession is even scarier than inflation. If we really enter a recession, it would be the final drop.
On the other hand, if the unemployment rate continues to decline, it indicates that the U.S. economy remains strong, which may not necessarily be a bad thing. After all, the key to reducing inflation is the inflation data, so essentially, a slight increase or stabilization of the unemployment rate is a good thing.
Then there is non-farm employment. The higher this data is, the better the U.S. economy is. The end of the month indicates that the economy is not very prosperous, and the layoffs in DOGE are actually a reduction in this data. Therefore, from the current perspective, the higher the non-farm data, the better it is for the market, as the economy is stable.
Finally, there is wages. There's not much to say here; the higher the wages, the better it is for the economy, and the lower, the worse it is for the economy. So overall, the current market expectation is for good data, and as long as it meets expectations, it should be fine.
This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
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