#事件合约 Today, I would like to share my thoughts on hedging with event contracts. What is hedging? It is not simply opening a long position at a low point and then opening a short position after the price rises, which would be considered a double gain. Hedging refers to the situation where, after opening your first position, you find that the market trend is contrary to your position, and at that point, you open another position that aligns with the market trend. However, the outcome? There is a 70% probability that both positions will be lost, a 20% chance of one gaining and one losing (losing a small amount but maintaining the principal), and only a 10% chance of both positions being profitable.

When is it suitable to open a hedge? Based on my practical experience, some people like to watch for golden crosses and death crosses of vol, MACD, and KDJ to play event contracts, but due to the sensitivity of these indicators, there often occur false signals, and in such cases, considering a hedge is an option. If a golden cross appears, open a long position; if a death cross appears, open a short position, and if you find it's a false signal, simply hedge. This approach may have a slightly higher win rate compared to random hedging, but it is still quite limited, and there remains a high probability of losing both positions.

Therefore, I actually do not recommend opening a hedge, as the risk-reward ratio is too poor, and the probability of successful hedging is far lower than the probability of losing both positions. Of course, I might hedge when I am overly confident, but from a rational perspective, it is certainly not advisable.