Date: March 6, 2025
I. BTC Market Overview
As of today (March 6, 2025, 9:52 AM WIB), the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is $91800
1. Price Dynamics
- Current Price Range: Based on recent market observations, BTC may fluctuate between $76000 and $96000 (referencing user analysis from platform X).
- Short-term trend: BTC may have formed a long lower shadow bullish candlestick near $81500 yesterday and has risen above the midline of the descending channel, showing signs of a short-term rebound. Resistance levels may be near the midline of BOLL or the descending trendline (around $94116 or higher), while support levels may be in the range of $76000-$81500.
- Key Event Impact: The market has recently been boosted by Trump's remarks on 'crypto reserves'; some analyses suggest this has propelled BTC to break through key resistance levels (like $86000-$87000), even touching above $90000, reversing the technical bearish trend.
2. Capital Flow and Position Data
- This week, BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $2.62 billion, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment among institutional funds.
- Stablecoin supply has decreased by $1.81 billion, and the willingness of off-market funds to buy at the bottom is not strong, which may limit upward momentum in the short term.
- The top 100 addresses increased their holdings by 21,000 BTC, while centralized exchanges (CEX) saw a decrease of 3,900 BTC, indicating that large holders are still accumulating, but market liquidity is slightly contracting.
3. Market Sentiment
- Retail sentiment has warmed due to positive news (such as expectations for policy support), but the cautious attitude of institutional funds may lead to increased short-term volatility.
- Technicals indicate that BTC may be in a rebound phase after a washout in the early stages of a bull market, but one should be cautious of high-level pullback risks.
#### II. Other Cryptocurrency Updates
1. Ethereum (ETH)
- The ETH hourly trend is relatively strong, with resistance levels at $2850-$2870 and support levels at $2736-$2706.#加密市场反弹
。- Trading Advice: If ETH stabilizes at $2736, consider short-term buying towards $2850; if it falls below $2706, further downward risks need to be monitored.
2. LINK (Chainlink)
- LINK recently fell below the $20 level, and in the short term, it may retrace to around $20, with support below in the range of $19-$19.3.
- Trading Advice: If the price rises to $20, one may attempt a short-term high sell; if it drops to around $19, observe whether it stabilizes before buying at a low.
#### III. Technical Analysis and Key Indicators
1. BTC Technicals
- Daily level: After BTC rose above the midline of the descending channel, the short-term trend is biased towards a rebound, with resistance levels to watch at $94116 (short-term resistance) and $97500 (previous high pressure).
- 1-hour level: Some analyses indicate that BTC may have formed a W-bottom structure, and the KD indicator shows a bottom divergence, with short-term support possibly near the midline of BOLL and the Fibonacci 0.618 level (around $81500-$83000).
- Support and Resistance:
- Support: $76000, $81500
- Resistance: $94116, $96000-$97500
2. Market Volatility
- Current market volatility is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in trading volume. If the rebound is accompanied by an increase in volume, it can be seen as a bullish signal; if it rises on decreasing volume, caution should be taken for false breakouts.
#### IV. Trading Strategies
1. BTC Trading Advice
- Short-term Trading:
- If the price pulls back to around $81500 and stabilizes, one may attempt to go long, targeting $94116, with a stop-loss set below $76000.
- If the price breaks above $96000 and stabilizes, one may chase the price up to $97500, but be cautious with position control.
- Midline Strategy: Current oscillation range is dominant; it is recommended to wait for clear trend signals (such as breaking above $97500 or falling below $76000) before adding positions.
- Risk Management: Set stop-losses and control positions to 20%-30% of total funds to avoid liquidation due to excessive volatility.
2. Other Cryptocurrencies
- ETH: Pay short-term attention to the $2736 support; if it stabilizes, consider buying a small position up to $2850.
- LINK: Mostly wait-and-see; if it stabilizes near $19, one may attempt to build a position at a low.
#### V. Risk Warning
- Policy Risks: The cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to policy, and if the regulatory stance in the US or other countries tightens, it may trigger significant price fluctuations.
- Capital Flow: Outflows from institutional funds and a decrease in stablecoin supply may limit upside potential, requiring close attention to on-chain data.
- Technical Risks: There is a possibility of false breakouts at high levels or a quick pullback after inducing buying, so strict stop-loss execution is recommended.
#### VI. Summary
Today, the BTC and cryptocurrency market shows an overall pattern of oscillation and rebound. Positive news in the short term (such as policy expectations) is pushing prices upward, but there is still uncertainty in the funding and market sentiment. It is recommended that investors focus on short-term operations, pay attention to key support and resistance levels, and manage positions and risks effectively. In the medium to long term, if BTC breaks above $97500 and stabilizes, it may open further upward space; conversely, if it falls below $76000, one should be wary of increasing downward risks.
