Recent market sentiment has been tumultuous, with continuous negative news such as the SOL crime incident and BYBIT hacking attack leading to excessive sell-offs of crypto assets, particularly BTC and ETH. However, market sentiment is often amplified by short-term events while overlooking long-term trends and fundamentals. Today, we will delve into the current market situation and why BTC is expected to return to the $90,000 mark in the short term!
1. Market sentiment is overly pessimistic; BTC has been misjudged.
Recent market sentiment has indeed caused some anxiety. Incidents of crime with SOL, hacking attacks on BYBIT, and misinterpretations of tariff issues have led to a massive sell-off of crypto assets. Particularly BTC, which should have shown resilience as the 'chaos hedging tool' during geopolitical tensions, has instead become the 'scapegoat.' However, this excessive sell-off has provided a buying opportunity for savvy investors.
Personal view: Market sentiment tends to amplify the impact of negative news in the short term, but in the long run, the fundamentals of BTC remain solid. ETF inflows are stable, and BTC's 'chaos hedging' characteristic still exists, meaning that once market sentiment warms up, BTC will rebound first.
2. The tariff issue has been misinterpreted; BTC may迎来转机.
Trump's tariff policy once threw the market into panic, particularly with a strong reaction from crypto assets, causing BTC to drop 10%. However, the market's interpretation of the tariff issue is flawed. The tariff issue is more about distribution effects rather than direct impact. Historical data shows that BTC performed well during the China-U.S. trade war, even significantly rising after tariff escalations.
Historical review: In May 2019, the U.S. raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25%, and BTC surged from $5,500 to $8,000; in June, as more tariff threats emerged, BTC peaked at $13,800. This indicates that the correlation between BTC and SPX was broken during the trade war, with BTC showing independent resilience and potential for growth.
Personal analysis: The current tariff issue has been overly digested by the market, and any positive news (such as reaching an agreement or lower-than-expected tax rates) will provide upward space for BTC. The market has already priced in the worst-case scenario, and it will only get better from here.
3. Friday's crypto summit: The market is underpricing, and potential positives are being ignored.
This Friday's crypto summit could be a significant turning point for the market. Currently, the market is underpricing this event, and the actual impact may far exceed expectations. Although the market generally believes that Trump's first 100 days will not yield substantial progress, we cannot ignore any potential positive factors.
Personal view: If the summit sends any positive signals, such as a clear regulatory framework or policy support, the market will quickly reprice. The current market sentiment is overly cautious, which provides a good risk-return ratio for going long.
4. ETF inflows are stable, and the market has released a lot of 'hot air.'
Despite recent market volatility, ETF inflows remain stable. The outflows last Friday and Monday have noticeably slowed down, and the market has released a large amount of 'hot air.' The current open interest (OI) and price structure of BTC, ETH, and SOL indicate that the market has returned to pre-election levels, with a significant amount of speculative capital having exited.
Personal analysis: This means that the market's 'glass ceiling' has turned into a 'glass floor,' with the area above $70 becoming a strong support level. As long as no new negative catalysts appear, BTC is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.
5. Saylor's silence is only temporary; buying will soon return.
Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy has not made large BTC purchases recently, but this does not mean he will remain silent indefinitely. Once he resumes buying, the market will gain additional support. Saylor's buying behavior has always been an important barometer for the market, and his return will greatly boost market confidence.
Personal view: Saylor's silence is only temporary; his buying behavior will again become a catalyst for the market. Once he announces a new buying plan, BTC will quickly gain upward momentum.
6. The margin of safety for going long: The market has underestimated the correlation between NVDA and BTC.
Recently, the market's reaction to NVDA's earnings report has been excessive, resulting in BTC being affected as well. However, the market has underestimated the correlation between NVDA and BTC. NVDA and BTC are actually the core pillars of the current risk asset market, and any positive news for NVDA will indirectly drive BTC upward.
Personal analysis: NVDA's strong performance will provide additional upward momentum for BTC. The market's excessive reaction to NVDA has come to an end, and a corrective rebound is on the horizon.
Conclusion: BTC returning to $90,000 is just a matter of time!
Although the current market sentiment is pessimistic, this very pessimism provides a buying opportunity for savvy investors. The fundamentals of BTC remain solid, with stable ETF inflows, and the tariff issue has been overly digested. The crypto summit on Friday may bring unexpected good news. Coupled with Saylor's potential buying and NVDA's strong performance, it is only a matter of time before BTC returns to $90,000.
Final reminder: The market is always full of uncertainties, and investment requires caution. But if you believe in BTC's long-term value, the current pullback is a good time to position yourself. Seize the opportunity and welcome the next round of increases!
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