In the trade war, tariff policies are constantly changing, seemingly having a huge impact, but what is the reality? Take American soybeans as an example: in 2024, China was an important buyer of American soybeans, accounting for 52% of U.S. soybean exports. Trump's rash imposition of tariffs was thought to be a way to control the situation, but American farmers were left in a dire situation. However, the flexibility of trade is beyond imagination; American soybeans were sold to Brazil, which then shipped them to China, and the price was surprisingly lower than before. This is just like in the cryptocurrency market, where you think you've found a stable trading path, but the market always presents unexpected changes.

Chinese electrical appliance companies have also shown strong resilience amidst the trade war. The U.S. imposed an 80% tariff on Chinese home appliances, seemingly able to curb the entry of Chinese products into the U.S. market. However, companies like Haier and Hisense acted quickly, establishing factories in Mexico to leverage the zero-tariff policy of the USMCA, easily shipping air conditioners and refrigerators to the U.S. Some small appliance companies first exported products to Vietnam and then re-exported them to the U.S., even though they had to pay a 46% tariff, they still saved half the cost compared to direct exports. This is like encountering obstacles in cryptocurrency trading; there are always new channels and strategies that can open up the situation.

Boston Consulting Group once calculated that re-export trade led to an 18% increase in costs for American consumers, but the protective effect that the U.S. originally hoped to achieve through tariffs was completely offset. The U.S. has always wanted to use the trade war to bring manufacturing back, but the reality is harsh. A McKinsey report pointed out that the proportion of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. is only 9%, and they are mostly concentrated in high-end industries. Ordinary Americans would rather work in food delivery or ride-sharing than engage in repetitive labor in factories. Even if the government subsidizes factory construction, companies prefer to set up production lines in Mexico, where labor costs are only one-third of those in the U.S., and they can also enjoy zero-tariff benefits.

In this trade war, the U.S. seems to be waving a big stick, but in reality, it is shooting itself in the foot. Its impact on the market may be like a gust of wind; after the wind passes, everything will eventually return to calm, leaving behind only reflections on unreasonable policies.