The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of recovery following one of its steepest declines earlier this week. A key driver of this rebound is a statement from the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, suggesting that former President Donald Trump may announce a rollback of tariffs on Canada and Mexico later today. In response, Ethena ($ENA ) has returned to positive territory, posting notable gains ahead of a significant token unlock event.

However, despite this temporary relief, ENA has experienced a sharp 69% decline over the past 60 days, significantly eroding investor confidence.

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Unlocking 39% of Circulating Supply

A major factor contributing to ENA’s recent downturn is the anticipation of today’s substantial token unlock event. According to data from Tokenomics, Ethena is conducting its first insider unlock, which will release approximately 2.07 billion ENA tokens—equivalent to 39% of its circulating supply—valued at over $764 million.

The distribution of the unlocked tokens is as follows:

Core Contributors: 1.13 billion ENA (~$471 million)

Investors: 937.5 million ENA (~$392 million)

Ecosystem Development: 7.93 million ENA (~$3.32 million)

This significant influx of tokens has raised concerns about potential selling pressure, which could further challenge price stability if large holders opt to liquidate their positions.

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Testing Critical Support Levels

From a technical standpoint, Ethena (ENA) has been on a downward trajectory since the start of 2025, following a rejection at its December high of $1.31. The bearish momentum has driven ENA to its current price of $0.36, where it is testing a crucial support zone between $0.31 and $0.40, as highlighted in red on the chart.

If ENA successfully maintains this support level, a potential rebound could trigger a recovery rally. This scenario could see the token reclaim its 25-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A confirmed breakout above this level might pave the way for a trend reversal, potentially driving the price towards $0.80 and beyond.

Conversely, a failure to uphold this support could expose ENA to further declines, with the next major support target around $0.23, marking the lower range of its previous trading structure (highlighted in grey).

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Outlook: Volatility Ahead

With 39% of ENA’s supply unlocking today, heightened volatility is expected in the near term. The key to price stability will be the market’s ability to absorb the increased supply without significant downward pressure.

Investors will closely monitor how ENA performs within the critical $0.31–$0.40 support zone and whether broader market recovery efforts can provide additional support. The coming days are likely to be pivotal for ENA’s short-term trajectory.

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