1. Core measures of trade war escalation
Tariff countermeasures: On March 4th, East Asia announced tariffs on certain US goods, involving agricultural products (15% tariff on chicken, wheat, etc.), food (10% tariff on soybeans, pork) and export controls on related US companies, directly responding to the US's previous 10% tariff policy against China. Additionally, East Asia strengthens its countermeasures through WTO litigation and an unreliable entity list, targeting weaknesses in the US supply chain by placing companies like PVH Group and Inman on the list. All of this was discussed in the March meeting.
Industrial chain competition escalates
East Asia exacerbates the challenges of the US military-industrial complex by restricting the export of key items (such as rare earths and semiconductors). Data shows that 87% of US missiles, 90% of military magnets, and 41% of weapon systems semiconductors depend on the Chinese supply chain; increased tariffs will raise US military costs and weaken its global competitiveness.
2. Market reactions and chain effects
US stocks experience violent fluctuations
The Dow Jones index has fallen more than 3% over two days, the Nasdaq dropped 2.99%, and Nvidia's single-day decline reached 8%. The main pressure on tech stocks comes from tariffs increasing corporate costs, compounded by liquidity squeeze (over 230,000 Bitcoin contracts liquidated in 24 hours).
Cryptocurrency 'roller coaster' market
Bitcoin surged to $94,000 after Trump announced a strategic reserve plan, but fell below $83,000 due to trade war escalation, later rebounding to $88,000. Ethereum fluctuated in sync, with market panic and policy expectation battles intensifying.
Safe-haven assets heat up
Gold rises to $2905/ounce, US Treasury yields drop to 4.15%, funds shift towards traditional safe-haven sectors. The European market, due to escalating geopolitical risks, sees the German DAX index reach an all-time high, with military stocks leading the rise by 8%.
3. Future key nodes and strategy recommendations
Policy signal window
The White House cryptocurrency summit on March 7 may release a regulatory framework; if it encourages institutional participation, it could become an opportunity for market bottoming. Attention should also be paid to the impact of April's OPEC+ production adjustments on commodities.
Investment strategy differentiation (the most important point)
Safe-haven allocation: Increase allocation to gold and US Treasuries, focus on policy-driven sectors like European military and new energy. Technology stock selection: Focus on companies with localized supply chain advantages (such as TSMC's US factory) and avoid cross-border dependent enterprises. Cryptocurrency: Need to wait for policy clarification, pay attention to Layer 2 governance reforms and ETF capital flows.
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