Bitcoin broke through the 100,000 yuan mark early this morning, but is it a real breakthrough or just a temporary celebration?

1. The three main drivers of this surge

Large institutions stockpiling

This week, the net inflow into Bitcoin ETF funds in the U.S. was 4 billion dollars, with financial giants like BlackRock frantically buying like they are in a supermarket.

Japanese listed companies directly stockpiled 10,000 coins (approximately 6.6 billion yuan), and the New Hampshire state government even used 5% of its fiscal reserves to buy coins, equivalent to pouring taxpayer money into cryptocurrency.

Policy green light fully opened

The Trump administration not only relaxed restrictions on cryptocurrency exchanges but also plans to permanently store 200,000 Bitcoins seized by the Justice Department — equivalent to directly removing 6% of market circulation, just like the price control tactics of Maotai.

Additionally, the trade agreement between the UK and the US has led to hot money pouring in, turning the crypto space into a safe haven.

Miners holding back sales

After Bitcoin's halving in April this year, the cost for miners to mine one coin reached 40,000 dollars. With the current coin price at 100,000, miners are even less willing to sell, resulting in a continued shrinkage of market circulation.

2. Can it continue to rise? Beware of these three risks.

Technical correction risk

Current market sentiment is overheated, with the RSI indicator reaching 85 (over 70 is considered high-risk territory), just like needing to catch your breath after running a marathon. There are large sell orders from institutions around the 102,000 dollar mark, clearly waiting to harvest retail investors chasing the rise.

Policy changes at any time

Although various states in the U.S. currently support Bitcoin, the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) has already begun strict investigations of exchanges. If they suddenly require real-name authentication for all wallets, it could trigger panic selling.

Retail investors picking up the tab

History is always eerily similar: in 2017, it surged to 69,000 and then halved, in 2021 the same 69,000 plummeted, and now after reaching a new high of 100,000, even neighborhood grandmas are asking how to buy coins, which is often a signal of market peaks.

The final truth

Losing money in a bull market is faster than in a bear market! The market makers pull up the prices just to find someone to take over, remember these two iron rules:

The faster it rises, the harder it falls.

When even market grandmas start talking about Bitcoin, it’s time for you to be cautious.