Recently, the market conditions for crypto and US stocks have been extremely volatile, with sharp fluctuations on an hourly basis, both long and short positions exploding, leading to significant oscillation. A statement from Trump or the Federal Reserve can crash or propel the market.

This is still the idea discussed in the group a few days ago.

In such a market condition, gradually reducing positions at highs, playing short trades with timely profit-taking, and not trading is the best approach. For short-term trading, stop-losses should be a bit wider, while profit-taking should be narrower.

Due to this market condition, order flow market-making thrives, and this type of market-making prefers to hit stop-losses and key psychological levels.

Tariffs → increase costs = raise prices, leading to inflation and affecting the economic environment.

Expelling immigrants → increases labor costs.

Cutting government employees → causing the unemployment rate to rise.

Various factors combined lead to an economic recession.

But Trump is deliberate; he wants the US to enter a recession.

However, this is a short-term recession because a recession can bring some benefits to his administration and to the future of America, while also paving the way for constitutional amendments to extend his term.

Retreating to advance; recession leads to a decrease in wages and a decline in consumer demand.

In terms of debt, a recession will lead to a decline in long-term bond yields, thereby reducing debt interest expenses.

The accompanying image suggests that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates or even implement QE.

This aims to stimulate the private economy rather than increase government spending.

That means shifting from the past demand-side to the supply-side.

Therefore, US stocks still need to undergo a period of adjustment.

From a political perspective, during this process, Trump can shift the blame for the recession onto Biden while continuing to set up some operations during this time.

After a rapid short-term recession, the Federal Reserve will finally cut interest rates or even implement QE.

Then, in the second half of the year, key policies such as tax cuts and regulatory relief will be formally passed. (When it is close to passing, there may be classic ambiguous statements to manipulate market fluctuations.)

Thus, by the first half of 2026, the entire US economy will begin to recover again. After a brief downturn, the high positions will no longer be precarious or facing dilemmas, and the market will start to clarify, everyone will start making money, and everyone will begin to thank Trump again.

Then in November 2026, during the midterm elections, Trump will continue to secure both houses for the Republican Party.

Next, the big changes will come, starting to gradually amend the constitution, slowly changing a bit, and then reaching the ultimate goal of extending his term, leading the entire Republican system and the Trump family to seize power and benefits in the long term.

The entire process heavily relies on controlling the intensity of the recession; if the recession quickly breaks the trend, it becomes very difficult to handle.

Old investors have experience; when the secondary market is tough, one can pay attention to the chains that are growing on-chain, or opportunities that combine on-chain projects with ground promotion, represented by BTC with some ETF support. Altcoins may behave like BTC did at the beginning of the bull market, leading the way while altcoins remain stagnant or even decline.

Because it’s time for project parties to agree on selling fake coins and hoarding real coins.