Tonight, the cryptocurrency market will face multiple storms! The negative impact of the U.S. stock market is offset by favorable non-farm payroll data, combined with expectations for the White House crypto summit on March 7, creating a highly sensitive market sentiment:
1. The plunge in U.S. stocks drags down the cryptocurrency market, increasing liquidity risk.
The negative sentiment in the U.S. stock market dominates short-term emotions: Influenced by Trump’s tariff policy (25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico) and concerns about economic recession, the three major U.S. stock indices are all declining! The financial securities sector leads the decline.
Increased interconnectedness: The correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the U.S. stock market has risen to a historical high, and the expiration of U.S. stock options further exacerbates volatility. If the U.S. stock market continues to weaken, cryptocurrencies may face greater selling pressure.
2. The 'favorable' non-farm data is questionable, policy expectations are key
Weak data may boost risk assets: If tonight's non-farm payroll data is below expectations (current forecast 133,000 vs. previous value 143,000), it may strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, benefiting anti-inflation assets such as Bitcoin.
But be wary of the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' trap: If the data exceeds expectations, it may trigger concerns about liquidity tightening, leading to funds withdrawing from the cryptocurrency market.
3. Market speculation intensifies before the White House summit
Policy expectations support bulls: If the summit on March 7 announces substantive policies such as details on Bitcoin spot ETF custody and Treasury reserve accounts, it may push Bitcoin to break through the resistance level of $90,000.
Risk warning: If only vague signals such as 'strategic reserves' are released, it may lead to profit-taking by bulls, causing prices to retrace to the support level of $82,000.
4. Operational advice: Respond flexibly to volatility, focus on key levels.
Short-term strategy:
If Bitcoin falls below $82,000, consider accumulating spot positions in batches (refer to the 'pin bar' signal);
If it breaks above $86,000, consider a light long position with a target of $90,000.
Risk control: Avoid heavy leveraged positions, beware of the risk of 'policy landing and then selling' after the summit.
Summary
Tonight, the cryptocurrency market will experience a 'rollercoaster' trend: the pressure from the U.S. stock market combined with fluctuations from non-farm payroll data and the summit expectations will intertwine, possibly creating a recent high in volatility. It is advised to closely monitor the performance of the U.S. stock market and the market reaction after the non-farm payroll data release, switch strategies flexibly, and pay attention to policy signals before the summit.