Whoa, whoa, whoa, as expected, the pullback is really significant, in an instance, we're swifting to bear trend again under high selling pressure. Well, it might be just a corrective wave of one two set up, or maybe not. We'll see, as of for now, let's continue our XLM Analysis with today's update as always in Daily Timeframe.

Key Observations

  1. Price Action: The price is at 0.28237 (by this time of writing), showing a significant decrease (-19.52%) from the previous analysis. This indicates a strong bearish reversal.

  2. EMAs: The price has fallen below the 7 EMA (0.30212), 21 EMA (0.31850), and is now well below the 99 EMA (0.33879). This confirms a strong bearish trend.

  3. Volume: The volume is high, suggesting strong selling pressure.

  4. MACD: The MACD line is crossing below the signal line, indicating a bearish crossover. The MACD histogram is also turning negative, confirming increasing bearish momentum.

  5. RSI: The RSI is at 38.46102, indicating decreasing buying pressure and potential for further downside.

  6. STOCHRSI: The STOCHRSI is at 58.11924, suggesting bearish momentum.

Analysis and Interpretation

  1. Strong Bearish Reversal: The significant price drop and the bearish indicators confirm a strong bearish reversal.

  2. Breakdown Below Key EMAs: The breakdown below the key EMAs (7, 21, and 99) is a significant bearish signal.

  3. High Selling Pressure: The high volume indicates strong selling pressure, suggesting that the bearish trend is likely to continue.

  4. Potential for Further Downside: The RSI and STOCHRSI indicate potential for further downside.

Scenario Analysis and Trading Decisions

Bullish Scenario

As of today, I still fixed on the Bullish Wave Count as long as it has no invalidation to break. The drop to 0.25231 could be the completion of a corrective wave, and the current decline could be a temporary pullback before a continuation of the bullish trend, in this case the one two set up of the upcoming Impulsive Wave 5.

  1. Fibonacci Levels:

    Retracement Levels (for potential support):

    Based on the recent swing from 0.25231 to 0.34689:

    - 23.6%: 0.3248

    - 38.2%: 0.3103

    - 50.0%: 0.2996

    - 61.8%: 0.2889 (we're breaking this as of right now we writing this, might as well go further to 71.3% Retracement

  2. Extension Levels (for potential targets):

    We need to identify a clear Wave 1 to project Wave 3 targets (as of now, it's still unclear)

  3. Trading Decisions:

    - If you're about to enter now, long positions is still consedered, only if there is a strong bullish reversal with significant volume and a break above key resistance levels.

    - Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss orders below key support levels.

Bearish Scenario

The Bearish Scenarion from this time of writing will be most likely in play, considering the recent upward move could be a corrective wave within a larger downtrend, and the current decline could be the start of a new bearish wave.

  1. Fibonacci Levels:

    Retracement Levels (for potential resistance):

    Based on the recent swing from 0.63661 to 0.25231:

    - 23.6%: 0.3421

    - 38.2%: 0.3907

    - 50.0%: 0.4445

    - 61.8%: 0.4983

  2. Extension Levels (for potential targets):

    We need to consider the larger corrective pattern to project Wave C targets.

  3. Trading Decisions:

    - In situation like this, you can consider short positions with stop-loss orders above key resistance levels.

    - Profit Targets: Use Fibonacci extension levels or previous support levels as potential profit targets.

Important Considerations:

  1. Confirmation: Wait for confirmation before entering any trade. Use multiple indicators and price action analysis to validate your trading decisions.

  2. Risk Management: Always use proper risk management techniques, including stop-loss orders and position sizing.

  3. Market Sentiment: Consider the overall market sentiment and news that could affect XLM.

Well, I'm gonna wrap it up here. Remember, this is not financial advise and should not be considered into one. Always do your own research. Choose your position calmcly, trade wisely and stick to your trading plan. Patience is the key to achieve your goal.

Last but not least, as always, may you always be happy, healthy and wealthy. Let me know if you have any questions or need further clarification on the comment below, I'll get back to you soon. Happy Trading and Huge Profit for you, cheers... 🍻

#USTariffs