After the price of BTC fell below 90,000 last week, historical volatility and implied volatility have finally started to rise. As mentioned in the analysis over the past few weeks: implied volatility has gradually decreased, and large fluctuations are about to arrive. It is believed that a significant fluctuation in BTC within the next month is a high-probability event. As a result, last week, the price of BTC fell a certain distance following the decline of the US stock market, directly filling the CME futures gap from the previous rise.
The position I have been mentioning in my previous analysis is the "vacuum zone," which is the strongest support level, specifically in the price range of 79,000 to 85,000, with 79,000 being the bottom line. After the price of BTC touched around 79,000 last Friday, it began to rise rapidly, bringing the price back above 85,000.
Now, the 79,000 level is the turning point of the entire bullish background. If it effectively breaks down, the bullish background that started from 25,000 will be terminated.
I believe there are two types of trends for the future market:
1. A large fluctuation range with 79,000 as the bottom and 110,000 as the top, creating horizontal oscillation (the price has now returned above 90,000).
2. A downward channel style of oscillation with a bearish bias (which will lead to breaking below 79,000).
Currently, the upward momentum of the bullish trend has been disrupted, and there is supply in the market, with BTC ETFs being continually redeemed every week. Even if new demand enters, it will first need to consume the existing supply. It is difficult to open trend-type bullish positions in trading; the overall strategy in March is to trade based on oscillation ideas.