After BTC's price fell below 90000 last week, the historical volatility and implied volatility finally began to rise. In the analysis from a few weeks ago, it was mentioned that implied volatility was gradually decreasing and that significant volatility was on the way. It is deemed highly probable that BTC will experience a notable fluctuation within the next month. As a result, last week BTC's price dropped in line with the decline in US stocks, directly filling the left-side upward CME futures gap.
The position I have been mentioning in my previous analysis is the 'vacuum position', which is the strongest support level, specifically in the price range of 79000-85000. 79000 is the bottom line, and after BTC's price touched around 79000 last Friday, it began to rise rapidly, returning above 85000.
Now the 79000 line is the turning point for the entire bullish backdrop. If it effectively falls below this level, the bullish trend that started from 25000 will be terminated.
I believe there are two scenarios for the future market trend:
1. Making a large oscillation range with 79000 as the bottom and 110000 as the top, creating a horizontal oscillation (the price has now returned above 90000).
2. A bearish oscillation in a downward channel (which will break below 79000).
Due to the fact that the upward momentum of the bullish trend has already been disrupted, there is supply in the market, and BTC ETFs are being continuously redeemed weekly. Even if new demand enters, it needs to consume the supply first. It is difficult to establish trend-based bullish positions in trading; overall, trading in March is based on an oscillation strategy.