Technical analysis (TA) is based on the assumption that past price movements can predict the future. However, this contradicts the very nature of financial markets and the basic principles of logic.

1. The past does not determine the future.

TA is based on the idea that price moves in repeating patterns. But the reason for price movement is not past charts, but the actions of market participants, news, macroeconomic factors, manipulations by big players, and random events. If past charts could actually predict the future, any algorithm based on them would yield guaranteed profit. However, this does not happen in reality.

2. Finding patterns in random data is a cognitive bias.

The human brain is wired to find patterns even where none exist. In random numbers, one can find 'head and shoulders,' 'double bottom,' or 'triangle,' but that does not mean there is a real pattern behind these figures. If you take any chart of random numbers, you can also see 'technical signals' in it. However, it is obvious that random numbers are not predictable.

3. If technical analysis worked, everyone would be rich.

The market is not a closed system governed by strict mathematical laws, but a competition among millions of participants with different interests. If TA truly provided accurate signals, big players would have long ago extracted all the profit from it, and any free indicator would have become useless. However, statistics show that the overwhelming majority of traders using TA lose money in the long run.

4. Big players destroy any predictable patterns.

The market is a zero-sum game. Once too many traders start using the same pattern, it stops working. Big players see stop-loss levels, anticipated breakouts, and corrections and use this information for manipulation. If technical indicators could reliably predict price movement, market makers would have wiped out everyone who uses them.

5. The market is chaotic and subject to unexpected changes.

Unlike physical processes that can be described by formulas, the market is formed by millions of independent decisions, often based on emotions. News, statements from officials, panic, or manipulation can nullify any technical analysis in seconds. Any method that does not account for the fundamental reasons behind price movement cannot be reliable by definition.

Technical analysis is not an objective forecasting tool because:

Past prices do not influence the future.

Most patterns are an illusion of regularity.

If TA worked, it would have long been discontinued, because markets adapt.

Big players destroy any predictable models.

Real price movement is determined by fundamental events, not lines on a chart.

Technical analysis may work in the short term due to the self-fulfilling prophecy effect, but in the long term, it's an illusion of control over chaos. The market will always find a way to punish those who believe in simplified schemes.