Source: Huali Huawai
Many people have not waited for Altcoin Season but seem to have arrived at Trump Season.
Yesterday (March 2 evening, Beijing time), Trump posted on Truth Social (a social media platform similar to Twitter, created by Trump Media Technology Group) announcing that the U.S. will advance a strategic reserve for cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, ensuring that the U.S. becomes the world's cryptocurrency capital. As shown in the image below.
Affected by this news, the currencies mentioned by Trump began to rise rapidly; for example, ADA saw an increase of about 80% in less than an hour. At the same time, the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market also began to warm up, with many altcoins following suit. As shown in the image below.
Thus, the same scene has appeared again; many people are shouting that the bull market has arrived, and some KOLs have also begun to shift from bearish to bullish, continuing to recommend various altcoin projects for everyone to buy in quickly.
Early this morning, I saw the partners in the group discussing this matter, and some joked: 'One operation is fierce as a tiger; the rise and fall all depend on Trump.'
So, what will happen in the market next?
First, simply describe today’s market as feeling like a young person who is about to rest on the sofa after a climax, but suddenly an old guy runs in and gives him a shot of adrenaline, so the young person gets hyped again and continues to play music and dance. At this point, the audience who originally planned to leave and some new viewers who are unaware of the situation come back to watch.
In the previous article, we mentioned three main factors that could affect the market's upcoming trends: narrative, economy, and policy. As shown in the image below.
As for the current market, we have not seen any new narratives or internal innovation drivers (as for the so-called innovative OdinFun that many partners have been promoting on social platforms in recent days, I personally will not comment or participate, but this does not affect people's short-term speculation and PvP), and there are no new stimuli in the macro economy. Therefore, today's market rise relies more on Trump's post, which is a kind of expectation in terms of policy. At the same time, this Friday (March 7, Eastern Time), the White House will hold its first cryptocurrency summit, where Trump will give a speech.
In short, Trump's statement today, combined with the upcoming expectations of the cryptocurrency summit, seems to have jointly reversed the extreme panic sentiment in the market over the past few days.
Last year, the main reason Bitcoin was able to rise to $100,000 was primarily due to the drive of ETFs and the expectation that 'crypto-friendly president' Trump would serve well. If the Trump administration can introduce more favorable policies in the coming time this year, it certainly does not rule out the possibility of delaying the so-called bull market process, for example, extending the expectation that 'the first half bull market ends' to 'the second half bull market ends.'
Especially since Trump mentioned 'other valuable cryptocurrencies' in his post, this seems to give people new imagination space. If everyone has been scrolling through social platforms (like X platform) these days, they will certainly continue to see some KOLs recommending various altcoins that may be included in the U.S. national reserve. My personal suggestion is that if your risk preference is not that high and you have a long-term investment plan, then just continue to hold onto your Bitcoin.
Now, although many people are starting to see a bull market again, as we mentioned earlier, we still need to focus on both narratives and the economy simultaneously, and not let Trump's temporary rally cloud our judgment. Especially this week, which is bound to be a volatile one, because in addition to the White House's first cryptocurrency summit, there are also unemployment and non-farm payroll data to be released (March 7, 21:30 Beijing time), and developments regarding the trade war also need to be monitored.
In the article a few days ago (February 28), we mentioned Black Friday; I wonder if we will break the Black Friday curse this week?
At the end of that article, we also mentioned: last year's cryptocurrency market was formed by positive variables due to Trump, and now it is generating negative variables again because of Trump. Isn't it interesting? In fact, the development of the market itself is a continuous unpredictability.
And now, the market is once again generating positive energy because of Trump; the market is just that interesting!
But regardless of how the market changes, we will definitely maintain a long-term optimism, but at the same time, we will always remain in awe of the market. It’s still that saying: the market is unpredictable, and we cannot control the market; the only thing we can control is our own positions.
Additionally, I try to indicate the time when writing articles, as some are in Beijing time and some are in Eastern Time. Having multiple times can sometimes lead to confusion. Currently, the time difference between Beijing time and Eastern Time is 13 hours, but soon we will switch to daylight saving time (daylight saving time starts from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November), at which point the time difference will be easier to calculate, and I won’t have to keep marking the time.
