A tweet from Trump once again sent the cryptocurrency market into a frenzy—on the evening of March 2, Bitcoin violently surged nearly $10,000 from $85,000, approaching $95,000. Behind this carnival of 'policy markets' lies a blatant game of capital and regulatory arbitrage.
I. Tweet Storm: A Precise 'Policy Maneuver'
1. The Smoke Screen of 'Strategic Reserve'
Trump announced the advancement of the 'cryptocurrency strategic reserve' on Truth Social, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL, XRP, and ADA in the reserve targets, emphasizing that 'America must become the crypto capital.' Within just two hours, Bitcoin surged by 11%, while SOL, XRP, and others rose over 30%. However, this so-called 'strategic reserve' remains a castle in the air— the White House only promised to hold a summit on March 7 to discuss it, with no concrete implementation plan formed yet.
2. Suspicions of Insider Trading: Who is Positioning Early?
On the eve of the tweet release, an anonymous address opened a long position on Bitcoin and Ethereum with 50x leverage, starting with only $4 million, but made a profit of $7 million within 24 hours. Even more bizarre, this address precisely took profits at the peak of the price surge, perfectly avoiding subsequent corrections. This 'foreknowledge' operation is highly suspicious of leaks from Trump's team—after all, Trump's crypto affairs chief, David Sachs, is a partner at the Solana investment firm Multicoin, and SOL was precisely the core target of this surge.
II. The Triple Traps Behind the Carnival
1. Policy Bubble: The Disconnection Between Promises and Reality
Since his campaign, Trump has been touting a 'cryptocurrency strategic reserve,' but actual progress has nearly stalled. The executive order signed in January only called for an 'assessment of feasibility,' while legislative attempts in places like South Dakota have already faltered. What the market is speculating on is merely a blank check.
2. Leverage Strangulation: The Bitter Lessons of 170,000 People
The surge was followed by a brutal liquidation—over 170,000 people were liquidated within 24 hours, with shorts losing over $500 million. High-leverage players became fodder in Trump's 'policy market,' while institutional whales took the opportunity to cash out. This game is essentially a dimensionality reduction attack by 'information privilege holders' on retail investors.
3. Meme Coin Aftermath: A Lesson from TRUMP Coin
The TRUMP Coin issued by Trump in January soared 1250% on its first day before crashing 80%, leaving countless latecomers with nothing. The same script is playing out again: SOL, XRP, and other targeted coins surged in the short term but lack fundamental support and will ultimately return to a state of chaos.
III. Future Projections: Is it a 'Policy Bull' or 'Cutting Leeks'?
1. Short-term: $80,000 is the Lifeline Between Bulls and Bears
Currently, Bitcoin has fallen back to around $90,000. If it breaks below the support level of $85,000, it may trigger a chain sell-off through programmed trading. The miner shutdown price ($78,000) will be the last line of defense.
2. Long-term: Beware of Trump's 'Policy Flip-Flop'
Trump's 'crypto-friendly' stance is essentially a tool for votes—if economic data deteriorates or election conditions change, he could easily turn to suppressing cryptocurrencies to shift the narrative. Standard Chartered's prediction of $200,000 is predicated on the continuous implementation of policies, and this assumption is as fragile as paper.
The market is becoming increasingly difficult to navigate, and the signs of manipulation will become more apparent. Protect your principal, brothers.
