The cryptocurrency market has become increasingly volatile and, at the same time, sensitive to any political or regulatory movements. Recently, former U.S. president Donald Trump publicly announced his support for Ripple (XRP) and the creation of a Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve in the U.S., highlighting the importance of XRP as an essential cryptocurrency for the future of global finance. The support was given before the resolution of the crucial legal case against the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), which is suing Ripple in a legal battle that could redefine XRP's status in the financial market.
This political intervention and Trump’s support may have generated an immediate effect on the cryptocurrency market, as investors and analysts expect this change in government attitude to be indicative of a promising future for Ripple (XRP), even though the SEC case has not yet been decided. The central question now is: has the market already priced in this support? The answer seems to be affirmative, but there are some important nuances to be analyzed.
The Context: Trump’s Support and the SEC Case
On March 2, 2025, Trump officially declared that the U.S. is establishing a Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve, which will include XRP. This initiative aims to position the United States as a global leader in the cryptocurrency sector, something that, if realized, would usher in a new era of acceptance and adoption for XRP, especially in the context of international payments and global financial systems. However, Ripple is still facing the lawsuit against the SEC, which accuses it of issuing XRP as an unregistered security.
The Effect of Anticipated Expectations on the Market
The financial market tends to anticipate major changes, especially in an environment as dynamic as that of cryptocurrencies. With the regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP, a high-level political intervention, such as that of Trump, has the potential to significantly alter market expectations.
Institutional investors and major players have already begun to price in the possibility that Ripple may have a clearer path following Trump’s support. Additionally, the expectation that the SEC may eventually be forced to adopt a more flexible stance regarding XRP may already be embedded in the current price of the coin, with strong buying movements from major investors and crypto market enthusiasts.
The Anticipated Pricing: What the Market Might Be Indicating?
• Increase in Market Value: Following Trump’s support announcement, the market value of XRP may have experienced a significant rise. The price of XRP, which was being pressured by regulatory uncertainties, could already be reflecting expectations of victory in the SEC case or, at the very least, the removal of the risk of more stringent regulations in the U.S.
• Investors Anticipating Victory: Pricing may be based on the idea that Trump’s presidential support is an indication that the U.S. government will align with Ripple's position regarding the case. This may have generated an appreciation of the asset, even before the SEC's decision.
• Risk of Excessive Expectation: Although Trump’s support is extremely positive for XRP, investors should be cautious that the market may be overvaluing the asset based on political expectations. If the SEC were to rule against Ripple or if the court decision is unfavorable, XRP could experience a sharp decline.
What to Expect from XRP in the Coming Months?
• Favorable Scenario: If Ripple wins the SEC case and Trump’s political support is realized, XRP could reach higher values due to additional momentum from institutional and governmental adoption. The current market pricing may reflect a rise of 10% to 30% compared to its pre-bet value, with potential further appreciation over time.
• Adverse Scenario: If the SEC wins, the price of XRP may suffer a substantial drop, despite Trump’s political support. The certification that XRP is a security could create a prolonged uncertainty scenario, causing the market to price a reduction in the token's value.
Although Trump’s presidential support is an extremely positive event for XRP, market pricing seems to reflect a combination of anticipated optimism and expectations of victory in the SEC case. However, this can be a double-edged sword. If the market has already excessively priced in expectations, it may result in more intense price fluctuations. Investors should be aware that the true resolution of the SEC may still have significant impacts on the price of XRP, regardless of Trump’s political support.
