The percentage chance of #XRP rising depends on the technical, fundamental, and market sentiment scenario. Although it is not possible to guarantee an exact prediction, analysts use probabilities based on chart patterns, events, and on-chain data.

Below is a summary based on the latest analyses:

Estimated probability of XRP rise (June 2025)

Scenario Estimated Probability Justification

- Moderate rise (up to US$ 2.60) 60% Rise

already in progress, strong technical support at US$ 2.20–2.30, optimistic market

- Strong rise (above US$ 3.00) 30% Depends on ETF approval, continuation of institutional inflows

- Decline (to US$ 1.80 or less) 10% Only occurs if it loses current technical support or there is mass profit-taking

Factors that increase the chance of a rise

• Approval of spot XRP ETF (expected on June 17)

• Strong institutional adoption after futures launch on CME

• Optimistic chart patterns (ascending triangle, wedge)

• Increasing volume and rise in active wallets

Risk factors

• Rejection of the ETF

• Correction in Bitcoin pulling the market

• Traders taking profits after recent rise

Summary conclusion

At this moment, the most likely scenario (60%) is a moderate rise to US$ 2.50–2.60. If the ETF is approved or other positive news arises, the chance of breaking through to US$ 3.00 or more rises to 30%. The risk of decline remains low (10%) but should not be ignored.