Let's analyze the prospects of Toncoin (TON) — a cryptocurrency associated with The Open Network, originally developed by the Telegram team. We will examine the factors that may influence the growth of TON and what to expect in 2025. The response will be based on an analysis of current data, market trends, and potential growth catalysts, without fabricated details.
What is TON and the current situation?
Toncoin is the native token of The Open Network (TON), a decentralized blockchain positioned as a scalable solution with high transaction speeds and low fees. After Telegram officially abandoned the project in 2020 due to regulatory pressure, the development of TON was taken over by the community and TON Foundation. As of March 2, 2025, the exact price of TON is unknown without real-time data, but at the end of 2024, it was fluctuating around $5–$7 with a market capitalization of about $14–15 billion, ranking in the top-10 cryptocurrencies.
Circumstances under which TON may grow
Development of the TON ecosystem
Sharding and scalability: TON was originally designed as a "super server" using sharding to handle millions of transactions per second. If the network proves its scalability (e.g., through the launch of new decentralized applications or integrations), it will attract developers and users, increasing demand for TON.
Shibarium-like projects: The success of new initiatives, such as decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, or gaming platforms on TON, could drive growth, as seen with other blockchains (e.g., BNB Chain or Solana).
Integration with Telegram
Despite the legal separation, TON remains closely linked to Telegram in the community's perception. By the end of 2024, Telegram had over 900 million users, and any steps towards integration with TON (e.g., built-in wallets, payments in TON through bots or advertisements) could significantly increase token adoption.
Example: In 2024, the launch of mini-apps with payments in TON already raised interest in the token. If Telegram goes further (e.g., makes TON the basis for monetization), this could become a powerful catalyst.
Token burning
The total supply of TON is approximately 5.1 billion tokens, of which about 2.5 billion are in circulation (data as of the end of 2024). If TON Foundation accelerates the burning (as Shiba Inu does), this will reduce supply and, with stable demand, increase price.
Historically, burning has already occurred (e.g., through Giver contracts until 2022), and its resumption could heat up the market.
Market conditions
Bull market: After the Bitcoin halving in 2024, a new cycle of cryptocurrency growth is expected in 2025–2026. If the total market capitalization rises to $5–10 trillion, TON, as a top-10 project, could receive a significant share of capital inflow.
Reduction of competition: If competitors (Solana, Cardano) face technical or regulatory issues, TON could capture their audience due to speed and low fees.
Support from major players
The influence of Pavel Durov or other well-known figures (e.g., investments from venture funds like Bitget or Foresight Ventures, which promised $30 million in 2024) could trigger FOMO and a short-term price spike.
Example: Durov's statement about a possible IPO of Telegram in 2024 raised TON by 10% in a day.
Regulatory clarity
If key markets (USA, EU) adopt favorable laws for cryptocurrencies in 2025, this will remove uncertainty and attract institutional investors to TON.
What to expect in 2025?
Price forecasts
Based on analytics from various sources (Cryptopolitan, Coinlib, Cryptomus, etc.) and current trends:
Conservative scenario: $6.89–$8.44 (average price ~$7.14). This assumes moderate growth of the ecosystem and a stable market.
Moderate scenario: $10–$12. Growth to double-digit values is possible with successful integration with Telegram or a bull market.
Optimistic scenario: $19–$25. Such a leap is realistic if TON displaces competitors (e.g., Ripple) into the top-6 or launches widely adopted applications.
Key events to watch for
Network updates: Announcements of scalability improvements or new features (e.g., TON Storage, TON DNS).
News from Telegram: Any hints of using TON in the messenger ecosystem.
Partnerships: Collaborations with major platforms or DeFi projects.
Technical analysis: A breakout above the resistance level (~$7.38 at the end of 2024) may signal the beginning of a bullish trend.
Risks
Volatility: TON is sensitive to news and hype, which can lead to sharp declines (e.g., -24% over 30 days in 2024).
Competition: Solana, Aptos, and other Layer-1 blockchains may draw investors' attention away.
Regulators: Strict measures against cryptocurrencies (especially those related to Telegram) could limit growth.
Conclusion
TON has the potential for growth in 2025 due to unique technology, connections with Telegram, and a growing ecosystem. A sharp jump is possible under:
Mass adoption through Telegram (e.g., 10–20% of users starting to use TON).
Reduction of supply through burning.
Bull market with capital inflow.
Realistic forecast for 2025 — a range of $7–$12 with a possible peak of up to $20 under ideal conditions. For a more accurate picture, follow the news from TON Foundation, activity in Telegram, and overall trends in the crypto market. Investments in TON remain risky as it is a young project highly dependent on external factors, so it is important to assess your capabilities and risks.
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