👉👉👉👉Question: So in fact, we can disregard the market's ups and downs and make decisions by tossing a coin, but my odds are indeed 0.8. Then, using my previously improved version of the Martingale strategy, what can the mathematical expectation reach based on the most recent calculation data? 👉👉👉👉Answer: Using coin toss decisions (win rate 50%), odds of 0.8, and the improved Martingale strategy (earning 5U in the first 3 attempts, not pursuing profit in the 4th attempt, and protecting 90% of the principal in the 5th attempt), the mathematical expectation is negative. Taking an initial capital of 1800U as an example, the average loss per bet is about 0.5U, and in the long run, it will lead to total loss. Since the odds of 0.8 are less than 1, the strategy may slow down losses but cannot generate profit. It is advised to increase the odds or reduce costs; otherwise, the principal will eventually be wiped out.

Core data
Principal: 1800U
Maximum consecutive losses: 6 times
Win rate: 40%

Betting limit: 750UInitial profit: 5UGive up profit: From the 4th time (P = 0U)Capital preservation ratio: From the 5th time 90%Betting amount (rounded up): 5U, 13U, 29U, 59U, 119U, 268URequired principal: 493UProbability of losing 6 times: 4.6656%Maximum bearable consecutive losses: 8 times (1765U)ExplanationA profit of 5U in the first 3 times is reasonable, give up profit on the 4th time, preserve 90% of the principal on the 5th time, 493U is far lower than 1800U, safe and efficient.If it's purely a mathematical formula derivation and calculation, the improvement of the Martingale strategy is indeed effective. However, why do some people encounter 11 consecutive losses? I believe that after four or five consecutive losses, your win rate may drop sharply to below 10%. Because at this point, the principal investment increases, and emotions and actions are fully dominated by human factors such as fear; you have become the '80' or even '90' in the 80/20 rule. Therefore, if you feel out of control after four or five consecutive losses, you should stop immediately, or switch to coin toss decision-making (50% stable probability), or lower profit targets (such as only making 2-3U each time) to increase the number of consecutive losses you can bear. Share your core data in the comments section, and I can use this strategy to calculate and analyze for you. Different viewpoints and opinions are welcome for discussion.