Core data

  • Principal: 1800U

  • Maximum consecutive losses: 6 times

  • Win rate: 40%

  • Betting limit: 750U

  • Initial profit: 5U

  • Give up profit: From the 4th time (P = 0U)

  • Capital preservation ratio: From the 5th time 90%

  • Betting amount (rounded up): 5U, 13U, 29U, 59U, 119U, 268U

  • Required principal: 493U

  • Probability of losing 6 times: 4.6656%

  • Maximum bearable consecutive losses: 8 times (1765U)

Explanation

  • A profit of 5U in the first 3 times is reasonable, give up profit on the 4th time, preserve 90% of the principal on the 5th time, 493U is far lower than 1800U, safe and efficient.



If it's purely a mathematical formula derivation and calculation, the improvement of the Martingale strategy is indeed effective. However, why do some people encounter 11 consecutive losses? I believe that after four or five consecutive losses, your win rate may drop sharply to below 10%. Because at this point, the principal investment increases, and emotions and actions are fully dominated by human factors such as fear; you have become the '80' or even '90' in the 80/20 rule. Therefore, if you feel out of control after four or five consecutive losses, you should stop immediately, or switch to coin toss decision-making (50% stable probability), or lower profit targets (such as only making 2-3U each time) to increase the number of consecutive losses you can bear. Share your core data in the comments section, and I can use this strategy to calculate and analyze for you. Different viewpoints and opinions are welcome for discussion.