Based on existing data, the recent price fluctuation patterns of Bitcoin exhibit the following characteristics throughout the week:
I. Time periods with the highest probability and magnitude of increase
Monday to Wednesday (institutional active period)
Traditional financial institutions (such as Bitcoin ETFs) typically conduct subscriptions and redemptions on weekdays, often leading to a catch-up rally on Mondays (institutional funds entering the market). For example, in November 2024, Bitcoin's single-day increase on Mondays frequently exceeded 8%.
Tuesdays and Wednesdays often see stair-step rebounds as the market digests macro policies (such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions) and technical corrections are needed. In October 2023, Bitcoin's single-day increase on Wednesdays exceeded 5% for three consecutive weeks.
Fridays (risk appetite recovery)
Investors tend to position themselves in safe-haven assets before the weekend, driving up prices in the late trading session on Fridays. On February 28, 2025, Bitcoin rebounded from $84,250 to $88,680 in the late trading session on Friday, with a single-day fluctuation of 5%.
II. Time periods with the highest probability and magnitude of decline
Thursday (concentration of selling pressure)
Data on fund flows for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs is typically released after the close on Thursdays. If there is a significant net outflow, it may trigger sell-offs during the Asian trading hours the next day (Friday). On February 27, 2025, Bitcoin's price plummeted by 6% to $84,250 due to a single-day net outflow of $935 million from ETFs.
Institutional investors often adjust their positions on Thursdays, leading to liquidity tightening. For example, in December 2024, Bitcoin's price fell over 4% on Thursdays for four consecutive weeks.
Weekend (liquidity trap)
Market liquidity decreases on Saturdays and Sundays, where a small number of sell orders can trigger flash crashes. On February 24, 2025 (Saturday), Bitcoin broke the key support of $90,000 under low trading volume, leading to a liquidation amount of $882 million within 24 hours.
Black swan events such as hacker attacks often occur on weekends. The $1.5 billion theft from Bybit exchange occurred on February 21, 2025 (Friday night), directly causing a nearly 10% price drop on Saturday.
III. Analysis of Causes
Institution-led cyclical fluctuations
The fund flows of Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock's IBIT) are concentrated on weekdays, forming a cycle of 'inflows at the beginning of the week - outflows at the weekend' with purchases on Mondays and redemptions on Thursdays.Technical aspects and emotional resonance
Key support levels such as the 200-day moving average (around $82,000) are often tested on weekdays, while weekends lack sufficient buying power to resist panic selling. For instance, on February 26, 2025 (Wednesday), Bitcoin triggered programmatic stop-loss orders after breaking this support, accelerating the decline.Time window of macro events
U.S. economic data (such as CPI, non-farm payrolls) is mostly released on weekdays, while policy changes (such as tariff adjustments) are often announced after the close on Fridays, leading to increased volatility at the beginning of the week and over the weekend.
IV. Data verification (statistics from 2023-2025)
(Data source: CoinGlass historical market statistics)
Conclusion
Best upward windows: Tuesday (increase of 2.1%, probability 58%) and Monday (catch-up effect).
Maximum downside risk: Saturday (median drop of -3.4%, probability 72%) and Thursday (peak institutional selling pressure).
Investors can refer to this pattern to optimize their investment strategies, such as avoiding the downturn cycle from Thursday to Saturday and focusing on positioning at the beginning of the week.