The question of an altseason in 2025 is gradually fading into the background, giving way to a more pressing concern—when will the crypto winter begin, and how long will it last? Cryptocurrency market participants are currently in a state of uncertainty and anxiety, reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which has dropped to a low of 10 for the first time since June 2024.
Unlike the previous crypto winter triggered by the collapse of the FTX exchange, the current market tension is driven by two key factors: strict U.S. regulatory policies and the proliferation of questionable crypto projects, primarily meme coins. The consequences of these factors are already being felt: in the past 24 hours alone, 173,522 traders have faced liquidations totaling $691 million, with long-position holders suffering the most—losing $511 million.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined by 2.8% in 24 hours, now standing at $2.95 trillion. Bitcoin's price hovers around $86,000. However, Ki Young Ju, CEO of the analytics platform CryptoQuant, points out that a 30% correction in Bitcoin during a bull market is a normal occurrence. He reminds investors that in 2021, Bitcoin initially fell by 53% before reaching a new all-time high.
A more pessimistic outlook comes from Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of the BitMEX crypto exchange, who accurately predicted the market downturn in March. He expects Bitcoin to drop to the $70,000–$75,000 range if the Trump administration fails to approve a budget that includes increased spending and a higher national debt limit.
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