As of February 28, 2025, Bitcoin's price has fallen below the $80,000 mark, retreating nearly $30,000 from this year's peak, with a daily decline of over 6%. This volatility has sparked intense discussions in the market about whether the bull market will continue. Below is an analysis based on multiple sources of information:
One, Current Market Status and Reasons for Decline
1. **Short-term Negative Factors**
- **ETF Capital Outflow**: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows for several days, with a single-day outflow reaching $1.13 billion on February 25, setting a historical record, indicating pressure from institutional fund withdrawals.
- **Impact of Security Events**: The Bybit exchange was hacked, with $1.5 billion in Ethereum stolen, severely damaging market confidence in centralized exchanges.
- **Policy and Geopolitics**: South Dakota has delayed its Bitcoin investment bill, and the Trump administration's tariff policy has intensified global risk aversion, leading to capital withdrawal from risk assets.
2. **Key Technical Support Levels**
- **Break Below 200-Day Moving Average**: Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-day moving average, a long-term technical support level, with the miner shutdown price (approximately $78,000) becoming the next key defense line. Further declines may trigger panic selling.
- **Market Sentiment Indicators**: The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has dropped to 10 points (extreme fear range), the lowest level since 2022, indicating extremely pessimistic short-term market sentiment.
Two, Is the Bull Market Still On? Divergence in Opinions
#### (1) Bullish Viewpoint: Pullback is Normal, Long-term Trend Unchanged
- **Historical Pullback Comparison**: The previous bull market experienced a 33% pullback, while the current decline is between 25%-30%, still within the common fluctuation range of a bull market cycle.
- **Institutional Long-term Outlook**:
- Bridgewater founder expects Bitcoin to reach $180,000 by the end of the year;
- Standard Chartered predicts that if Trump is reelected, Bitcoin could rise to $500,000, maintaining a target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- **Miner Cost Support**: The current miner shutdown price is around $78,000. If the price approaches this level, selling pressure from miners may decrease, forming a bottom support.
(2) Bearish Viewpoint: Risks Intensifying, Bear Market Warning
- **Capital Withdrawal and Technical Breakdown**: Continuous outflows from Bitcoin ETFs combined with prices breaking below key support levels have led some analysts to believe that the price may further dip to $73,000 or even lower in the short term.
- **Market Structure Changes**: Bitcoin's market share is declining, with funds flowing into altcoins, indicating a shift in market risk appetite that may weaken Bitcoin's dominance.
- **Macroeconomic Pressure**: External factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate policies and US-China trade tensions continue to exert pressure, increasing market uncertainty.
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Three, Investor Strategy Recommendations
1. **Short-term Response**
- **Focus on Key Support Levels**: The $78,000 miner shutdown price and the $73,000 technical support level may become turning points for the market.
- **Risk Management**: Set stop-loss orders or convert part of the assets to stablecoins to reduce volatility risk.
2. **Long-term Layout**
- **Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy**: Gradually build positions in the market at low levels to average down costs.
- **Diversified Allocation**: Spread investments into other crypto assets like Ethereum, Solana, or traditional assets to balance risk.
- **Focus on Policy Milestones**: The Federal Reserve's March meeting and the September Bitcoin halving event may serve as catalysts for market recovery.
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Four, Summary: The Continuation of the Bull Market Depends on Key Conditions
The current decline in Bitcoin more reflects short-term risk release rather than a long-term trend reversal. **If the price stabilizes above $78,000 and ETF outflows slow down, the bull market may continue**. However, if geopolitical risks intensify or regulations tighten further, the market may enter a phase of bear market. Investors need to closely monitor macroeconomic data, policy trends, and technical signals to adjust strategies flexibly.
