"You can't step into the same river twice."
Daily News NEWS
1. The Crypto Fear Index fell to a new low since July 2022, and the market continued to be in a state of extreme panic
2. Pundi AI and The Generative Beings reached a strategic cooperation to jointly promote the development of AI ecology in Singapore and Southeast Asia
3. A newly created wallet withdraws 1 million KAITO from Binance and pledges it
4. Whales who lost $24.5 million on TRUMP bought more than 290,000 TRUMPs again
5. US SEC’s determination: Memecoin is not a security, investors must bear their own risks
6. Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark as concerns about U.S. tariffs reignited demand for the dollar
7. Congressman Sam Liccardo will introduce a bill that prohibits the president, members of Congress and other senior officials, as well as their spouses and children from issuing or sponsoring securities and cryptocurrencies
Market Observation
The analysis is simple and concise. For more specific indicators, please send a private message to X
(ps: For short-term operations, it is recommended to set up profit position protection. Position management is the holy grail of trading‼️)
Chart structure | Chip distribution | Main force tracking | Volume-price theory | Market psychology | Macro analysis | Micro analysis
$BTC
Large cycle level (including weekly and daily analysis):
The medium-term bearish trend is basically established✔️
Short-term test daily gap 78000-81000✔️
It is also important to note that there are a large number of high-multiple long orders that have not been liquidated near the daily gap (78,000-80,000).
The first thing to be clear is that
Anyway, the market is already in a technical bear market.
There are currently two potential scenarios
1. Bull market correction (technical short selling) - personal preference
Technical trapping occurs basically once in every round.
That is, after forming a large-scale top, it falls below the key medium-term upward trend range.
(Currently this position is around 87000-90000)
In the last round of technical short selling, Bitcoin retreated about 50% from its high point.
(From 312, the price continued to rise unilaterally to 6.4w, with few pullbacks or adjustments in between)
The difference in this round is that there has been a half-year consolidation from the breakthrough of 32,000 at the end of 2023 to now.
The overall chip cost of the market has also increased during this period (that is, the profit-taking of the "bear market" cost faces less selling pressure)
Therefore, if the historical retracement valuation is 50%, the probability of reaching it is relatively small (corresponding to the demand range of 52,000-57,000)
From a technical perspective (mentioned in yesterday's analysis), there are two key support levels that need to be paid attention to:
1. Daily level gap: 78000-81000
2. The previous high support level of the previous main rising wave: 70000-74000 (re-revised)
The corresponding high point retracement range is about 28%-35%, which is in line with the retracement adjustment from the "chip angle"
Rebuild a new round of bottom near these two key positions and break through 10w again
2. The end of the bull market and the beginning of the bear market (cycle change)
From this perspective, the five-wave structure at the weekly level has basically been completed.
If the market enters a bearish trend, the previous high support level of 70,000-74,000 of the previous main upward wave will most likely continue to be broken.
The price also has the opportunity to return to the chip demand range of the previous consolidation range for a second exchange of chips.
(This price range is around 53,000-60,000)
After completing another secondary rebound, the corresponding high point retracement range is about 47-52% (consistent with the previous round)
Thus building a larger top structure
Operation reference:
The biggest trading opportunity at the moment is to bet on a secondary rebound or a V-shaped reversal.
The bottom is not a rebound, and the rebound is not the bottom. The bottom is not achieved overnight.
In the short term, we need to observe the reversal opportunities of two key supports, 78000-81000 and 70000-74000.
$ETH
Weekly level:
Currently testing the lows of last August again
Short-term risks are relatively high
The support range below is 2000-2100
The upper resistance range is 2350-2550
Operation reference:
At present, we mainly observe the big cake.
If the price of Bitcoin falls to around 70,000-74,000
The probability of Ethereum falling below this point will continue to accelerate
Minimize short-term ether operations
$SUN
3-day line level:
The bottom-picking range is 115-130 in batches✔️
Among the mainstream, it is the first to fall and also the strongest.
It seems that a lot of funds are buying at the bottom
Operation reference:
The strategy remains unchanged for the time being and will continue to be implemented as planned
115-130 Continue to work in batches
Stop loss
Reduce positions near rebound 150-160
OPPORTUNITY
#Short Term
If there is no sign of reversal at the small level of the market, try to reduce operations
There are a few trends that you can pay attention to first:
$GRASS $VINE
Continue to look for new coins and memes during the rebound!
#Medium and long term
None.
REVIEW
$BTC medium-term bearish trend is established✔️
$SOL reached the bottom range of 115-130 in batches✔️
$LTC short-term stop loss ❌
ps: The above analysis and interpretation are just personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice
