What are the reasons for the recent decline in Bitcoin? Where can it stop falling? I've been discussing these two questions with friends recently.

Why the waterfall decline? The most direct reason is that it has risen too much. After Trump won the election, institutions kept pushing the market up based on market sentiment, causing many people to doubt life. Normally, this bull market should be around 80,000 now; you can calculate how much it has overshot. What rises for too long must eventually fall, and what falls for too long must eventually rise; there must be a correction to fill the gap. This time, the high point oscillated for a full two months, just to let the market believe that the bull was still on.

However, since the establishment of the new government, there has been no action for a long time; instead, a series of measures have left the market in constant fear, causing U.S. stocks to continue to decline. Additionally, the theft of cryptocurrencies in the crypto space and large sell-offs by institutions have created a situation of mutual destruction. This decline was inevitable; at the high point, you should have noticed that liquidity was severely inadequate. Prices too high fail to attract new participants; after all, institutions cannot keep pushing it up forever?

In summary: a decline is necessary from both a technical and market perspective.

So where will it fall to?

Looking at the bull market in 2021, it fell by 30%. This round of decline is currently about 27%, still short of the 30% from 2021. I saw someone in the square shouting short since November, calling for a short the entire bull market, and when it finally fell, they claimed how amazing they were, always making profits! I still want to maintain some dignity and wouldn't dare to do that. If you're wrong, you're wrong.

In this round of decline, I previously mentioned that entering at 78,000 would be good, and adding to the position at 71,000 is within my understanding; holding at this price will definitely not lead to losses, and will yield at least 30% profit. I expect a new wave of daily-level increases to start on March 6.

Still the same viewpoint: you must invest in resilient altcoins!