#BTC #矿机
Half of the miners reach the shutdown price, can Bitcoin welcome a rebound?
The current Bitcoin price is at $86,000, which is very close to the shutdown price for BTC miners. Relevant data shows that when the Bitcoin price hovers around $85,000, it is nearly at the shutdown price for miners.
At this time, more than half of the miners face a very difficult choice: should they continue to consume electricity and persist in mining, or simply press the shutdown button?
Meaning of the shutdown price
The shutdown price is the dividing line for Bitcoin miners' profits and losses. Once the Bitcoin price falls below this level, the revenue from mining becomes insufficient to cover the electricity costs, and miners are forced to shut down. We can calculate the shutdown price using the formula “shutdown price=(daily power consumption of the miner×electricity price)÷(daily output of Bitcoin×mining pool fee coefficient)”. Taking the Antminer S19 as an example, its currently calculated shutdown price is close to $85,000, which is quite close to the current price of Bitcoin, reflecting the survival pressure faced by the entire industry.
Historical correlation between shutdown price and market bottom
Looking back at past bear markets, we find a pattern: after the shutdown price triggers a large-scale halt of miners, the market often rebounds.
For example, in December 2018, the Bitcoin price dropped to $3,150, S9 miners halted, and then the Bitcoin price rebounded by 344%; in March 2020, the price fell to $3,800, hash rate decreased by 30%, and then a bull market began, with prices rising to $65,000; during the bear market of 2022, the price fell below $20,000, hash rate decreased by 26%, and then rebounded in early 2023. The reason for this phenomenon of “shutdown indicating the bottom” is the combined result of reduced selling pressure, institutional bottom-fishing, and mining difficulty adjustments.
