I haven't encountered any forecasts that are close to my reasoning (mostly only partially correlating with mine), so I decided to create my own😊.
So, let's start with the fact that I've been seeing many bullish motives in the market for a while now. But one of the most important is (of course) the active consideration and discussion of launching a procedure for states to create part of their reserves from cryptocurrencies.
It's obvious that if this process starts, the capitalization of crypto from such global inflows will begin to increase "like crazy".
But...
There was also an understanding that to launch this process, acceptable conditions must be created for future global investors (after all, state financial structures are very conservative by nature, and are unlikely to engage in such an adventure, but under certain circumstances: a thirst for profit and a charismatic example from others can shift the process from a dead point). In general, for big players of this level to enter, it was necessary to at least slightly correct (at most significantly) the crypto price, so that future state crypto-monsters could buy at more favorable prices (otherwise, they won't be lured in any other way). And for the last three weeks, I have patiently and painfully awaited this moment (barely made it🤦♂️🙆♂️ [sitting with money and watching it about to fly away without you is incredibly hard😅]).
Besides everything, I am currently observing (this may just be my crypto fantasies, keep that in mind!) how altcoins are increasingly resisting Bitcoin's dominance, and are ready to soar upwards. (If before many alts would easily crash at any hiccup, only to be repurchased at even more favorable prices, now I see some coins showing stubborn resistance to falling, in the form of a one-level sideways movement and attempts to shoot up at any excuse). They seem to be on a low start, ready to take off into space (just waiting for this negativity about Bitcoin to end).
So now, we are finally approaching a certain balance between the highs and lows, a place where further decline (even if we assume that some kind of consensus deal among the big players exists) becomes risky in terms of missing out on profits (you didn't buy in time and the price skyrocketed without you, everyone is rich and happy, and you are lagging behind🤷♂️).
And I think, just like everywhere else, there is a human factor (someone in a frenzy might just give a false start, despite legal agreements and "blood oaths", the process will start, and then everyone who doesn't hesitate will jump in [everyone who isn't lagging behind]). So I think that even if there's an agreement to "pull the price to 50", it simply won't happen.
+there are still targets (debts and GAPS) at around 77~, perhaps the reaction will happen right there, and no matter how one planned, "everything will happen - as it happens"😄 (V.K. (c))
Next.
Let's assume that we have a rough idea of the vector of events, what does this give us?
Option_A (the most desirable):
Right now we are hovering around 85, and in the coming days, a final climactic breakout will occur. Ideally, for it to happen, it would be a powerful PIN-bar (with a shadow down to 77-70 [it could be much lower] and back up to 83+-), then it would be clear that there is some excitement and haste (since such a powerful drop was bought back so fatally; well, the deceptive nature of the throw would also suggest a scripted nature of the movement, =means that "informed" characters bought in, =means we will go up well and for a long time).
but...
who prepared so many sweet free goodies for us in this life for free...? (only in wet dreams😅) Therefore, much less pleasant options are much more likely))
Option_B (the most likely)
The climax will be ambiguous, and instead of a clear and understandable market direction, a long and tedious phase of uncertainty will begin, with fluctuations in all directions. A sideways movement that will exhaust all your brainpower, fray all your nerves, and only after a month or three will some fluctuation finally transform into a true initial movement, developing into a trend, but your deposit/mental health/desire to get rich on crypto [insert what you like] will no longer exist😅.
Option_B (the saddest one)
We will go through this same flat nerve-wracking course (option B), but also a little downward (even seasoned short-sellers will be unraveled to the state of psycho-neurotic paranoids😄, no one will earn here. [I'll return to this spot😉]).
Options G (with a steep downward movement to the lows) and D (black swans, [exchange hacks, etc.] =the end of crypto) are not considered (too long to write).
{man, I'm getting tired of typing...
I will stop now}
So...
What strategy should be chosen among the available options?
In my opinion, the most optimal option is not to be greedy and take a tiny profit, rather than go all in and lose everything. (It's better to prepare for the worst-case scenario and earn much less in a positive scenario than to invest in the best-case scenario and "lose money like an adult", with a soul, epically😄).
In general:
* If option_A (with a mega drop and a mega buyback) occurs, then I will be buying in with 50% of my capacity, +averaging positions along the way (the next day and later, even if it slightly harms the average price, but it's calmer than risking everything in the moment).
* If option_B (or C, you can’t guess them) occurs, the optimal option will be to work on the small side of the flat [to be that "nobody" who doesn’t build Napoleonic plans, earning a penny without being greedy, but on every passage, from one edge to the opposite edge ~ of the flat], or if it's a bit more reliable or bigger lots, from the edge of the flat to its center (after all, option C, with a downward shift [and upward too] can always "unexpectedly arrive").
{phew... sorry, I can't type anymore, my head is smoking, so I'll finish dry and without details, 🤷♂️. Well, anyway, I've laid out the main essence.😉 [not IRR]}
Wishing everyone goodness!😇🤗💕
