2024 is a bottoming period, while 2025 will be a super bull market + the market of 2024. It is a typical bottoming market, and many good companies have been hovering at the bottom; dividend stocks have even risen. Therefore, there will be a super bull market in the future. The longer the bottoming time is, the greater the rebound space will be. The stock market doesn’t have so many complications; dare to hold stocks in the bottom area, and dare to hold cash in the top area. When major shareholders reduce their holdings at the top, they dare to chase the rise; in the bottom area, major shareholders increase their holdings and buybacks cannot stop them from cutting losses.
Round and round, so how can one make a profit? The East believes it's a bull market because their holdings have all risen. Recently, even the medical sector has risen, and the stocks with good performance have obviously not dropped. This is a bottoming market. In the early stages of a bull market, what does early stage mean? It means speculative small and poor stocks are rising indiscriminately, which is the acceleration wave of the bull market. Clearly, it is still early, and it may not even occur. The stock market is like this; every round of bull markets is different.
Some bull markets end without you even noticing, just like the market from 2019 to 2020, where many 5x and 10x bull stocks went unnoticed.
In 2025, after the Spring Festival, the real super bull market may begin. Currently, it is just bottoming out, and the rate-cutting cycle has begun. Historically, this has had a significant impact on the economy. Our consumption recovery will lead to a recovery in everything.
By the end of September 2024, we will be at the beginning of a bull market. The bull market in 2025 will definitely continue; the question is how long and how far it will go. A bull market usually consists of five waves. This wave of the bull market started in 924, and the first wave has already completed; the second wave adjustment started on November 8. On November 27, an important low of 3227 appeared.
Technically, the previous period confirmed the end of the 60-minute level decline and reversed to a daily level rise. However, due to certain reasons, the adjustment low point of 3227 since November 8 is a 30-minute level bottom structure. The 60-minute level bottom structure is not perfect. Additionally, the time has also been a bit short.
If this wave is a mid-term adjustment of the second wave, then the time and space are insufficient. Here, let me say a few words off-topic. Due to my professional attitude and accurate predictions, I have repeatedly escaped peaks and bottomed out since last year, with almost no mistakes. For example, the stocks we have been working on recently, such as Fulai New Materials (605488), Jidong Equipment (000856), and Zhejiang Rongtai (603119), have all doubled. Everyone knows the market is ever-changing, so one cannot stubbornly stick to old ways; following the right rhythm is the most important. Prepare to buy and hold a high-quality stock that could double, and this stock has five key characteristics:
1. The overall trend is currently good, with a large bullish candle appearing at the bottom, and the main force has started to accumulate strongly.
2. The previous stock prices fell by more than 50%, with a bottoming and consolidation wash lasting for two years, technically forming an arc-shaped bottom; the technical shape is nearly perfect.
4. The company integrates core concepts such as smart speakers, DeepSeek, star flash concepts, Huawei concepts, and robotics! A large amount of capital has already entered, and I am waiting for a strong stretching opportunity after buying at the low stage.
5. Outstanding performance, occupying major hot sectors; small volume, low price, easy to pull up; currently, it is expected to have at least a 60% increase in the short term, and a doubling in medium-term returns. The best time for low buying and positioning is now!
Fans who want to keep up with the progress can come to *Zhong*? Chenzi Xuan Mo, just type 'Zhihu' and it will automatically pop up for you to understand. I deeply understand the difficulties of being a retail investor and am willing to move forward together with everyone! The market is changing rapidly now; there are actually many opportunities, but there is a lack of people who are good at discovering and seizing those opportunities. I deeply understand the difficulties of being a retail investor; I am willing to move forward together with everyone, after all, 'teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish.'
1. The bull market of 2015:
The Shanghai Composite Index dropped from 6124 points in 2007 and continued to decline until the end of the fourth quarter of 2008, experiencing a year of decline. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2008, the main force began to enter the market to build positions, continuing to rise until the end of the position-building period in 2010. The retracement began in 2010 and ended in 2014, with a retracement period of four years. After two years of position-building and four years of retracement, a total of six years were used to start the bull market from 2014 to 2015. During the retracement period, a low volume quarterly K-line appeared in the third quarter of 2012. The volume retracement was sufficient, but the retracement time was not enough, so the bull market had not arrived yet. Therefore, during the two years of consolidation, the bull market from 2014 to 2015 started.
2. Outlook for the bull market in 2025:
The Shanghai Composite Index dropped from 5178 points in 2015, undergoing an ABC wave decline, and fell until the end of the fourth quarter of 2018. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2018, the national team began to enter the market to build positions, continuing until the end of 2021. The position-building period lasted for three years. Currently, in 2024, it has already retraced for three years. With three years of position-building and three years of retracement, the time has been sufficient. Why hasn't a bull market emerged yet? The answer is that the trading volume has not adjusted properly. Throughout the three years of retracement, there hasn't been a single period of low volume on the quarterly K-line. A low volume quarterly K-line is a reversal signal. I personally predict that either this quarter or the fourth quarter, there will be a low volume quarterly K-line, which should be below 13 trillion.
Therefore, in the coming period, trading volume will shrink significantly, and the entire quarter will leave people in a state of despair. I predict that Shanghai should see a trading volume below 150 billion, and this will become the norm. Once a low volume is recorded at the end of the quarter, combined with the rise of heavyweight stocks, I believe the bull market of the Chinese Eastern Giant Dragon will start in 2025.
The bull market in A-shares will arrive soon. Many people are currently bearish on the market, saying that 2635 will definitely break, and the next target for decline is 2445 points. This phenomenon itself is a bottom characteristic. Currently, the three markets of weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly lines have all formed a double bottom shape. If it goes fast, the bull market will start in October; if it goes slow, it will begin in 2025.
Firstly, bull markets always occur after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Historically, there have been six times when the Federal Reserve shifted its monetary policy and began a rate-cutting cycle: in 1981, 1989, 1995, 2000, 2006, and 2019. Considering that the A-share market started relatively late, it is generally analyzed that the two times in 2006 and 2019 are the starting points for A-share bull markets! In 2007, it reached a peak of 6124 points, and in 2019, the A-shares rose for three years from 2440 points to 3731 points! The two rate-cutting bull markets indicate that a bull market in A-shares can be expected in 2025! As the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, the renminbi will enter an appreciation cycle! Chinese assets will become more valuable, which is also key to the bull market! Hang Seng Index and Chinese concept stocks will simultaneously enter a bull market!
Secondly, the Kondratieff wave cycle + turning point. Around 2025 is the turning point from recession to recovery in the Kondratieff cycle. Historically, during the recession, not only is the economy poor, but wars may also occur. However, bull markets occur during recovery and prosperity periods!
Once again, the judgment of the annual trend! For the long-term structure of 5-8 years: 2025-2027 will be a great bull market, and there is a high probability that the index will break through 6124 points. Around the middle or second half of 2027, the market will peak, ending the bull market. In 2028, there will be a crash of thousands of points throughout the year.
It can be expected that 2025 will be a critical time for China's monetary easing to rescue the economy and real estate market, as well as a time for the world windfall to arrive. The Chinese stock market should start in the second half of 2024 or at the latest in the first half of 2025. Investors need to endure about half a year and wait quietly for the bull market to arrive. This timing window will coincide with the arrival of the U.S. rate-cutting wave, as well as China's loose monetary policies to rescue the real estate market, economy, and stock market, which is beyond human will.
The vast majority of investors will be buried before the bull market starts. Some people will be thrown off during the mid-term of the bull market. When almost everyone thinks the bull market has really arrived, we should be getting off the bus early! The fewer people play stocks now, the greater the strength of the future bulls. If everyone invests in stocks, like in 2021 when everyone bought funds, it would instead be a precursor to a crash because there would be no buyers left!
Finally, let's talk about how to operate in a bull market:
1. First and foremost, the most important thing is to shift from a weak mindset to a strong mindset quickly. This is crucial. In a weak market, the mentality of being cautious leads to fear of retracement, so whenever there is volatility, people will sell. If you carry this cautious mentality into a bull market, you will inevitably sell when prices rise, failing to make big profits, right? Therefore, shifting to a strong mindset is very important.
2. The basic operation of a bull market must primarily involve holding stocks. As long as demand is strong, or there is no indication of insufficient demand and no sign of a trend reversal, do not easily sell.
3. Do not frequently change stocks. The most taboo thing in a bull market is frequently changing stocks. Since it is a bull market, there are actually opportunities everywhere. Many people always think their pace is slow, then chase after strong stocks they see. However, by the time you switch, the strong stocks begin to adjust or stagnate, and the ones you sold start to rise. You end up like a dog trying to pick corn, not getting anything. Ultimately, in a bull market, all sectors rise, but if you keep switching, you will tire yourself out and still not outperform the average.
4. Do not guess the top; let the top emerge by itself. The top will naturally have signals and shapes that indicate its formation, and it must conform to the characteristics of 'demand shrinking, supply strong.' Before this characteristic is reached, there will first be insufficient demand at the top, which will be reflected in increasing volume stagnation, transaction volume not keeping up, and trend reversals, etc. In short, without seeing a top formation, it is easy to guess the top and exit too early.
5. The first phase of a bull market is often a broad rise; at this time, selecting stocks is not important, but the position is crucial. However, after entering the second stage, differentiation will occur, and stock selection will become very important. Strong logic and good performance will lead to better sustainability, while junk stocks often return to where they came from. Therefore, apart from the first phase, it is still important to pay attention to stock selection and direction.
Bull markets often complete adjustments within a day, or adjustments usually involve a sudden drop followed by a quick recovery. That is to say, if you see a sudden drop during the day, and then it can V-shaped recover, or if you see a long bearish line that can be restored the next day, it shows that the market is strong, which fits the characteristics of a bull market. Therefore, a sudden drop in a bull market is often a buying opportunity.
7. From the perspective of buying points, the buying points in a bull market cannot be too strict because since it is a bull market (remember, this is the premise), it means that prices will continue to rise. Since prices will keep going up, it’s hard to give you a comfortable buying point, and even harder to buy at a low. It's precisely because prices are rising that buying at any time is correct. Being too rigid about buying points in a bull market makes it hard to get on board.
8. Selling in a bull market should ideally use right-side sell points; left-side sell points often lead to selling too early. In other words, in a bull market, it’s best to wait for the top to emerge on its own, and then, after surpassing the top, look for signals of insufficient demand on the right side before selling, moderately giving up a little profit at the top, so as not to exit too early. Don't always think about selling at the very top; that's impossible. This mentality can negatively affect trading.
9. When early strong stocks and strong sectors begin to stagnate and later low-priced junk stocks see a rebound, the bull market is nearly over, or there should be at least a medium-term adjustment. The first wave of the bull market is often led by quality stocks that align with policy directions. Once these stocks rise, the second tier begins to rise, and finally, when third- and fourth-tier stocks have risen once, all sectors have rotated, and the bull market enters its final stage.
Shendan is still laying out every day!
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