Yesterday's article mentioned a key indicator, STH-RPC (which means 92,800 is the watershed for 'local bull and bear').

Today's daily line has not recovered, and 92,000 has become strong resistance.

This means that the trend that started in October 2024 has been disrupted both structurally and emotionally. Even if it can return above STH-RPC in the short term, similar false breakouts may occur, or there may be various complex uncertainties such as oscillating back and forth around STH-RPC, or a downward trend.

Observing the data, it seems that confidence has been damaged, but it doesn't appear to have 'forced' out too much panic selling.

From the data perspective, I can only say it is 'moderate', but there are two underlying logics worth our contemplation:

1. At this point, the tightly held chips at high positions seem unwilling to sell at a loss. Perhaps it's not desperate enough; the short-term decline has not broken the last line of defense in their hearts, so I haven't seen a clear and thorough clearing.

2. Perhaps these loss-making chips are all waiting for a rebound later, so these highly concentrated trapped chips will inevitably become potential selling pressure. When most people are expecting, we often need to lower the achievable expected value.

So what kind of data is considered 'good' data?

1. Stage 1, there is a process from small to large: just like on July 5, 2024, testing the market's psychological endurance once, and then on August 5, 2024, completely breaking down and clearing out panic selling.

2. Stage 2, there is a process from large to small: after the panic selling is forced out, even if the price continues to decline, the realized losses will become less and less.

When at least one of the conditions is met, we can consider the market to have transitioned from 'extremely dangerous' to 'relatively safe', and conditions for gradual accumulation are in place.

Therefore, more time and data are needed now to observe and judge.

Additionally, the speculation on the larger market trend:

First, the acceleration of this wave of market started with the red circle in the chart below testing resistance at 50,000, followed by a period of consolidation and accumulation, which then broke through to new highs. However, it will also retest the bull market starting point, which is the critical position of 50,000, similarly circled in red.

After breaking through the new high, the yellow part in the chart below also underwent a long period of consolidation and accumulation, but was consistently suppressed around 73,000, ultimately breaking through to over 100,000.

Now back to the weekly level of consolidation, it has been testing and trying to break through 108,000 but has always been suppressed. Yesterday's drop was just an appetizer; the downward trend has not ended. Every time the market starts or breaks a new high, it will retest the bull market starting point, which is around 70,000 to 75,000, before welcoming a new round of high market, targeting 150,000+.

This is just a speculation based on the weekly chart. If the short-term support is at the previous low of 86,000, if it breaks down again, it will head straight for 70,000.

Now we need to pay attention to two points: whether 86,000 will break down, or whether 92,000 can hold, but we need to be cautious after it holds to avoid a trap for buyers, as there is also a gap waiting to be filled around the 70,000 mark, so we can only wait a bit longer.

The most important point: this year's bull market is still on!! This wave of Bitcoin will come after a complete adjustment. The U.S. SEC has recently withdrawn several cryptocurrency-related cases, and regulation is significantly loosening. These positive factors have not yet been reflected in the market. Once Bitcoin adjusts, a series of positive news will follow.