The market changes rapidly, and trading is about the present; you sing whatever song corresponds to the mountain you're on. Bitcoin has seen another pullback, piercing down to a level close to the lower edge of our descending channel at 86,000. Facing such a strong decline, this level has not been broken before; the maximum decline previously was to 89,000. The degree of this decline is quite alarming, but this time there has not been a quick recovery. Previously, there were very clear signs of recovery, but this time after one or two days, there hasn't been much change at this level. If we continue the trend from the previous round, we still need to wait some time for a rebound. Many people say the bull market is over. Is it really over?
The market cap of stablecoins has seen an increase. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a large outflow of more than 8,000 bitcoins, which is a significant outflow compared to the past, and it is coming from some institutions. The fear index has also reached a level of 21, indicating that everyone has entered a very fearful moment. The last time the fear index dropped to this level was last year, and it also happened at the end of the last bull market when it dropped below 20%. Currently, it is a very fearful state. Therefore, whenever such fear arises, it is usually a time for everyone to buy, as purchasing during such fear typically leads to profits. There is still an opportunity this week to test the upper level of 90,000. In the next one to two days, there will be a rebound path for Bitcoin. The exchange balances show that some people are selling the coins they hold. Indeed, at this position, some people are calling the end of the bull market while others claim the bull market is still ongoing, leading to a back-and-forth argument.
In Japan, there are still two liquidation positions at 87,000 and 86,000. The upper levels of 89,000 and 90,000 have a liquidation point, so these two days will still see some liquidations at these positions. Over the past seven days, the trend is still mainly bullish, leaning towards a rebound after a pullback. You may see many cryptocurrencies rebounding in the next couple of days to liquidate some contracts. Therefore, the contract liquidations you see over these two days are quite alarming. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies is quietly changing, dropping from 60% to 58% and still further declining. Bitcoin has not shown a market cap of 40% or 30% in this wave, so there is no doubt that the bull market is still ongoing. Next, we need to consider if 110,000 is the peak for this round of the market, how to plan for the future. Once the 80,000 level is broken, it means the slope of the bull market has been breached. If there is no rebound to around 95,000 or even 100,000 within twenty days, then this round of market is likely hopeless. If these twenty days go well, there will also be altcoins. 80,000 is the critical point between bull and bear markets. Currently, I suggest positioning some spot trades at this level, seeing if you dare to take the bet. Most people do not dare; I have already bought a little at this position yesterday, with an average price around 88,000. In the long run, it's still relatively cheap. You must control your current positions well and slowly accumulate. That's all I want to say today.
