SOL Unlocking and Strategy - March, September, November 2025

1. March 1, 2025: Largest Scale Unlocking

• Unlock Quantity: 11.2 million SOL

• Involved Parties: Tokens acquired in the FTX bankruptcy auction by institutions such as Galaxy Digital and Pantera Capital

• Current Value: Approximately $2.06 billion (calculated at the current SOL price of $184, actual value may fluctuate)

• Market Impact:

– Accounts for 23% of total supply, extremely high short-term selling pressure risk

– The cost price for institutions like Galaxy Digital is about $64, if sold, it could realize $3 billion in unrealized profits

2. September 2025: Remaining FTX/Alameda Unlocking

• Unlock Quantity: 7.98 million SOL

• Source: Unsold SOL tokens from FTX bankruptcy assets

• Potential Selling Pressure: If market sentiment is low, institutions may choose to take profits

3. November 2025: Final FTX/Alameda Unlocking

• Unlock Quantity: 26.67 million SOL

• Risk Points:

– This batch has the largest unlocking volume, accounting for a higher proportion of the total supply

– If earlier unlocks have already caused price drops, this phase may accelerate market panic

Key Conclusions

1. Core Date: March 1, 2025, is the maximum risk node, close attention should be paid to large on-chain transfers before and after the unlocking (monitor via Solana blockchain explorer).

2. Institutional Motivation: The cost price for institutions like Galaxy Digital is far lower than the current price, creating strong selling motivation.

3. Market Prediction:

– Short-term: There may be “anticipated selling” before the unlocking, leading to a preemptive price drop (referencing the technical descending triangle pattern).

– Long-term: If Solana ecosystem applications (such as DePIN, Meme coins) can attract incremental funds, it may offset some selling pressure.

Investor Action Recommendations

• Short-term (before March 2025):

– Reduce positions or hedge: Open short positions in the futures market or buy put options.

– Monitor on-chain data: Pay attention to whether institutional addresses (like Galaxy) show unusual activity.

• Long-term:

– If the SOL price drops to key support levels (such as $120), consider building positions in batches, betting on ecosystem recovery.

Note: The above analysis is based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice; please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance.