Bitcoin (BTC) has gone through a tough phase since trading below $100,000 on February 5, 2025. Despite many efforts to recover prices, BTC is still under pressure from traders and facing strong resistance from the market. Current technical indicators show that sellers are dominating, particularly the Directional Movement Index (DMI), which indicates that selling pressure is increasing.
DMI Index: Signals of market pressure
Bitcoin's DMI index currently shows that sellers are leading the market. Specifically, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has now risen to 21.2 after reaching a level of 22.9, compared to 15.5 recorded two days ago. ADX is an important tool for measuring trend strength, with values ranging from 0 to 100. Typically, if ADX surpasses the 25 level, it can signal a strong trend, while a value below 20 suggests a weak or choppy market.
Currently, Bitcoin's ADX is at 21.2, indicating that the trend is in a relatively weak state, leading to the potential for a transitional phase. This situation may reflect that previous bullish momentum is fading, which could lead to a reversal or the beginning of a bearish trend.
The DMI index chart also shows that the +DI (Directional Indicator) has decreased to 15.5 from 23.3 just a day ago, while the -DI (Negative Directional Indicator) has increased to 21.9 from 9.2, reflecting an increasing bearish trend. This crossover at the point where -DI surpasses +DI indicates that sellers are controlling the market, which could signal a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend.
If -DI continues to rise and +DI remains weak, Bitcoin may face increasing selling pressure and prices could decline. Conversely, if +DI shows signs of recovery, this could lead to a consolidation period before Bitcoin chooses a clearer direction.
Ichimoku Cloud Analysis: Bearish trend continues
When considering the Ichimoku Cloud chart related to Bitcoin, it can be seen that the current market is still in a bearish trend. The Tenkan-sen line (blue line) remains above the Kijun-sen line (red line), indicating that there is a certain purchasing pressure occurring. However, Bitcoin's current price remains below the Kumo cloud, indicating that the overall trend still leans towards bearishness and there is strong resistance at current levels.
There are increasing signals suggesting that the bearish momentum may be declining, as the Kumo cloud ahead is thin and slightly shifting upwards. If Bitcoin can penetrate the Kumo cloud, it would be a potential signal for a trend reversal, especially when the Tenkan-sen line remains above the Kijun-sen line. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to break through the cloud and the Tenkan-sen drops below the Kijun-sen, it is highly likely that the bearish trend will continue.
Currently, Bitcoin faces an important resistance zone, which will significantly impact its next move. The success or failure to break through the Kumo cloud will determine the future direction of this currency. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor signals from the Ichimoku indicators to make reasonable trading decisions, especially in the context of the currently very volatile market.
With the current signs, Bitcoin's bearish trend is likely to continue unless there is a sudden change in market momentum. Investors should be cautious and prepare for all possibilities, especially in such volatile times as now.
Could Bitcoin return to the $100,000 level?
Recently, Bitcoin almost formed a new golden cross before the Bybit hack occurred, leading to a sharp price drop from around $98,000 to $95,000 in just four hours. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are still declining, with short-term EMA indicators below long-term EMA indicators, indicating that bearish momentum continues to dominate.
This discount structure shows that selling pressure remains the dominant factor. If sellers continue to maintain control, Bitcoin may retest the support level at $94,818, a level that has been held firm during the recent downturn. If this support level is broken, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will drop further to $93,415, and the downward trend could continue to push prices down to a low of $91,300.
However, if Bitcoin's price can recover from this decline and indicate that the bearish trend may not be as strong as it appears, it would be a positive signal. Both ADX and Ichimoku Cloud suggest that current bearish momentum is weakening, hinting that there may be a potential reversal. In this case, Bitcoin could retest the resistance level at $97,756, and if this level is surpassed, it could rise to $100,000.
Conclusion on Bitcoin
The current situation of Bitcoin presents a complex picture, with interference from sellers and strength from buyers. However, uncertainty is something traders need to be cautious about. If Bitcoin can break through key resistance levels and show clear signs of recovery, it may challenge the price level of $100,000 and potentially higher.
Conversely, if selling pressure increases and the key support level is broken, Bitcoin may face a longer period of downturn. Therefore, monitoring technical indicators and market trends will be crucial during this phase. Volatility is certain, and it is essential for investors to prepare for any possible scenarios in the near future.
