In October 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will make a final ruling on the fate of the four major cryptocurrency spot ETFs. The ETF applications of XRP, Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL) are undergoing strict review by the SEC, and the results of this review may reshape the landscape of the cryptocurrency market.
As the countdown begins, the market's attention to this "ultimate trial" continues to heat up.
XRP Spot ETF: Hidden Concerns Under an Open Attitude
The number of applications for XRP spot ETFs is the most active among the four major currencies. WisdomTree, 21 Shares, and Grayscale have all submitted applications, and the SEC's latest ruling dates are October 17, October 12, and October 12, 2025, respectively.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate that the probability of XRP spot ETF approval is 65%.
However, the road to XRP's ETF has not been smooth sailing. Ripple has actively promoted the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), has cooperated with countries such as Montenegro on pilot projects, and has spent millions of dollars lobbying in Washington, trying to become the technical supporter of the US CBDC. However, US President Trump explicitly opposes CBDCs, believing that they may have an adverse impact on privacy rights. This difference in position may have an adverse impact on the approval of the XRP ETF.
In addition, the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple in 2020, accusing it of unregistered securities offerings by selling XRP. Although the court ruled in July 2023 that XRP was not considered a security when sold in the secondary market, the SEC appealed the ruling in October 2024, causing the price of XRP to fall by 11% at one point.
These factors cast a shadow on the final approval of the XRP ETF.
Litecoin (LTC) Spot ETF: The Most Likely “Winner”
Litecoin ETF is considered the most likely to be approved among the four major currencies. As one of the longest-running cryptocurrencies on the market, LTC has maintained a high level of security and decentralization since its launch in 2011. Its similar technical architecture and commodity attributes to Bitcoin make it less risky under the SEC regulatory framework.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that the probability of LTC ETF being approved is as high as 90%.
The SEC's latest ruling date is September 26, 2025. If the LTC ETF is approved, it will become the third cryptocurrency spot ETF approved by the SEC after Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Spot ETF: The Counterattack of the Meme Coin?
The application for Dogecoin ETF has also attracted much attention. The DOGE network is highly decentralized and lacks an obvious centralized institution or issuer, so it is difficult for the SEC to identify it as a security.
In addition, DOGE has a large and active community support and has maintained high liquidity in the market for a long time, which provides a solid foundation for the issuance of its ETF.
Bloomberg analysts predict that the probability of approval of the DOGE spot ETF is 75%. The latest ruling date of the SEC is October 12, 2025.
If the DOGE ETF is approved, it will become the first cryptocurrency ETF based on Meme culture, further promoting DOGE's position in the mainstream financial market.
Solana (SOL) Spot ETF: A Breakout from the Regulatory Dilemma
The application for Solana ETF has made new progress recently, and institutions such as 21 Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital and VanEck have submitted applications.
However, the biggest challenge facing Solana is that the SEC has repeatedly classified it as an unregistered security. During the tenure of the previous chairman Gary Gensler, the SEC considered SOL as a security in the Coinbase and Binance lawsuits, which increased the complexity of its operations in the US market.
Bloomberg analysts predict that the SOL ETF has a 70% chance of approval. The SEC’s latest ruling date is October 9, 2025. If the SEC ultimately approves the SOL ETF, it would be equivalent to publicly overturning its previous definition of cryptocurrencies as securities, which could have adverse effects in court.
Ethereum (ETH) ETF: Introduction of staking mechanism
The application for Ethereum ETF is also progressing continuously, and a staking function may be introduced to further increase investor returns.
NYSE Arca has filed an application with the SEC to allow Grayscale’s Ethereum ETF to be collateralized. If the SEC approves these collateralization proposals, the Ethereum ETF market may see stronger inflows.
The introduction of the pledge mechanism will save investors from having to operate or manage the pledge process themselves. The ETF issuer will handle it on their behalf, and investors only need to hold ETF shares to indirectly obtain these pledge returns.
This innovative mechanism may bring more appeal to Ethereum ETF.
The SEC will make a final ruling on the spot ETFs for XRP, LTC, DOGE, and SOL in October 2025. Litecoin and Dogecoin have the highest probability of approval, at 90% and 75% respectively, while Solana and XRP have probabilities of 70% and 65%.
In addition, if Ethereum ETFs are approved for staking, they will provide investors with an additional source of income. As the countdown begins, the market is full of expectations about the fate of these ETFs, and the SEC's decision may have a profound impact on the future direction of the cryptocurrency market.
This "ultimate trial" not only concerns the fate of the four major currencies, but will also determine the position of cryptocurrency in the mainstream financial market. After 200 days, the answer will be revealed.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should view cryptocurrency investment rationally based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals, and should not blindly follow the trend.
